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首页> 外文期刊>Research journal of applied science, engineering and technology >The Empirical Research of the Impact of GDP and Exchange Rate on Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale in China-Based on Quantile Regression Model
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The Empirical Research of the Impact of GDP and Exchange Rate on Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale in China-Based on Quantile Regression Model

机译：GDP和汇率对中国外汇储备规模影响的实证研究-基于分位数回归模型

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摘要

Based on the relevant data from 1985 to 2010, this thesis uses a quantile regression model to make an empirical research about the effect of GDP and exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve. The findings show that: Both GDP and exchange rate have a remarkable influence on the size of foreign exchange reserve and the effect of exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve is higher than GDP at mean place and middle and lower quantile, smaller than GDP at higher quantile. At all the examined quantiles elastic coefficients of GDP and exchange rate are positive and among them, the elastic coefficients of GDP present us a reverse "V" model with the conditional distribution altering from low to high, that is, the impact of GDP on foreign exchange reserve shows an increasing trend when the latter is smaller, but begins to decrease when the latter reaches to a certain level; the elastic coefficients of exchange rate at lower quantiles are bigger than that of higher quantiles.
机译：基于1985年至2010年的相关数据，本文采用分位数回归模型对GDP和汇率对外汇储备的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：GDP和汇率对外汇储备的规模都有显着影响，汇率对外汇储备的影响在平均水平和中低分位数处高于GDP，在较高分位数处低于GDP。 。在所有检验的分位数上，GDP和汇率的弹性系数均为正，其中，GDP的弹性系数为我们提供了一个反向“ V”模型，其条件分布从低到高变化，即GDP对外国的影响外汇储备较小时，外汇储备呈上升趋势，但到一定水平时，外汇储备开始下降。较低分位数的汇率弹性系数大于较高分位数的汇率弹性系数。

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