Do deployment policies pick technologies by (not) picking applications?-A simulation of investment decisions in technologies with multiple applications

Tobias S.Schmidt; Benedikt Battke; David Grosspietsch; Volker H. Hoffmann

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Do deployment policies pick technologies by (not) picking applications?-A simulation of investment decisions in technologies with multiple applications

机译：部署策略是否通过（不是）选择应用程序来选择技术？-模拟具有多个应用程序的技术中的投资决策

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The role of deployment policies that aim to foster technological change has grown considerably, especially in the fields of energy and climate. However, recent research has shown that the adoption of deployment policies carries the potential of locking in the technology that is most cost-effective at the point of policy introduction, but may be inefficient in the long term. The present paper contributes to the emerging literature on the role of deployment policies in creating path-dependency and eventually technology lock-in. While previous studies focused on the relationship between lock-in and the technology-specificity of deployment policies, this paper introduces a new factor: the existence of multiple applications for a technology. We argue that this factor is highly relevant for technological lock-in and should be considered by policy makers. To support our argument, we simulate the competition among four stationary battery technologies across energy system applications in an investment simulation model. This simulation shows that the degree of competition among technologies differs strongly across applications, which corresponds with a highly varying lock-in probability. Hence, selecting applications in deployment policies very likely corresponds to selecting technologies. We discuss the implications of these results for both policy makers and for the academic debate on deployment policies and technological lock-in as well as on technology assessment and governance more generally. Based on the notion that policies can have different technology-specificity levels, we develop the idea of the application-specificity of policies and provide examples of currently enacted deployment policies that vary in terms of their technology and application specificity.

机译：旨在促进技术变革的部署政策的作用已经大大提高，特别是在能源和气候领域。但是，最近的研究表明，采用部署策略具有锁定该技术的潜力，而该技术在引入策略时最具成本效益，但从长期来看可能效率不高。本文为有关部署策略在创建路径依赖和最终技术锁定方面的作用的新兴文献做出了贡献。尽管先前的研究集中在锁定和部署策略的技术特定性之间的关系上，但本文引入了一个新因素：一项技术存在多个应用程序。我们认为，这一因素与技术锁定高度相关，政策制定者应考虑这一因素。为了支持我们的观点，我们在投资模拟模型中模拟了四种固定电池技术在能源系统应用中的竞争。该仿真表明，技术之间的竞争程度在不同的应用程序之间差异很大，这对应于高度不同的锁定概率。因此，在部署策略中选择应用程序很可能对应于选择技术。我们讨论了这些结果对决策者以及有关部署政策和技术锁定以及更广泛的技术评估和治理的学术辩论的意义。基于策略可以具有不同的技术特定性级别的概念，我们提出了策略的应用程序特定性的概念，并提供了当前制定的部署策略的示例，这些部署策略的技术和应用程序特定性有所不同。

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来源
《Research policy》 |2016年第10期|1965-1983|共19页
作者
Tobias S.Schmidt; Benedikt Battke; David Grosspietsch; Volker H. Hoffmann;
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作者单位

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich), Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences. Energy Politics Group, Haldeneggsteig 4, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland;

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich), Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Croup for Sustainability and Technology, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland;

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich), Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Croup for Sustainability and Technology, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland;

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich), Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, Croup for Sustainability and Technology, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Technological lock-in; Path-dependency; Technology policy; Multi-purpose technology; Techno-economic model; Energy storage;

机译：技术锁定;路径依赖;技术政策;多功能技术;技术经济模型;储能;

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机译：可再生能源技术的应用：发展中国家的政策和部署
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机译：负载速度索引低于如何选择应用程序的正确索引，加上IF / VF技术的影响
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机译：用于治疗溶酶体疾病脑的平台技术：肝脏患者术语A型
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机译：超级挑选工具，用于超超挑型展示位置 - 在先进的MCM-D技术中展示了应用
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机译：具有多个In--In--In--In-In-In--In--In-In-In-In-In-In-In-In-In-In-In-In-In-In的概率模型
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机译：基于价值的新医疗技术评估：建立健壮的方法框架在卫生技术评估中应用多标准决策分析
7. A PROPOSED TECHNOLOGY SOLUTION FOR ENHANCING ORDER PICKING IN WAREHOUSES AND DISTRIBUTION CENTERS BASED ON A GAMIFIED AUGMENTED REALITY APPLICATION [O] . 2020

机译：基于赌博增强现实申请，提出了提高仓库和配送中心的拣选订单的技术解决方案
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机译：投资和税收政策：现有模型和实证结果的调查及其在高科技领域的应用

Do deployment policies pick technologies by (not) picking applications?-A simulation of investment decisions in technologies with multiple applications

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