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首页> 外文期刊>Review of Economics and Statistics >FOLLOWING GERMANY'S LEAD: USING INTERNATIONAL MONETARY LINKAGES TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE ECONOMY
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FOLLOWING GERMANY'S LEAD: USING INTERNATIONAL MONETARY LINKAGES TO ESTIMATE THE EFFECT OF MONETARY POLICY ON THE ECONOMY

机译：紧随德国之后：利用国际货币联系来评估货币政策对经济的影响

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摘要

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority makes it difficult to estimate the effect of monetary policy interventions on output. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on quarterly real output for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. These estimates confirm a strong forward-looking bias in least squares estimates that persists even conditional on standard controls for the history of the system. Due to the potential for correlation of output shocks across countries, we interpret our estimates as lower bounds for the effect of monetary policy on real output.
机译：货币当局的前瞻性行为使得难以估计货币政策干预对产出的影响。我们以德国利率为工具，介绍了几个欧洲国家利率对季度实际产出影响的工具变量估计。这些估计值证实了最小二乘估计值存在强烈的前瞻性偏差，该偏差甚至在系统历史记录的标准控制条件下仍然存在。由于各国之间可能存在产出冲击相关性，因此我们将我们的估计解释为货币政策对实际产出的影响的下限。

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  • 来源
    《Review of Economics and Statistics》 |2009年第2期|P.315-331|共17页
  • 作者

    Julian di Giovanni; Justin McCrary; Till von Wachter;

  • 作者单位

    International Monetary Fund, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER Columbia University and NBER;

    International Monetary Fund, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER Columbia University and NBER;

    International Monetary Fund, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER Columbia University and NBER;

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