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Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science

机译：公众对气候变化科学不确定性的认识

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摘要

Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile.
机译：气候变化是一个复杂，多方面的问题，涉及各种相互作用的系统和参与者。因此，气候变化后果的强度，位置和时间框架难以预测，并造成不确定性。对于公众如何看待这种科学不确定性以及这与他们对气候变化的关注之间的关系知之甚少。本文报道了对306名瑞士人的在线调查，调查了人们是否在气候变化研究中区分不同类型的不确定性。还研究了不确定性的感知与人们对气候变化的关注，对科学的信任，对气候变化的了解以及他们的政治态度有关的方式。主成分分析的结果表明，受访者将气候研究中的模棱两可，测量不确定性和对气候变化未来影响的不确定性区分开来。使用结构方程模型，发现只有感知的歧义与对气候变化的关注直接相关，而测量不确定性和未来不确定性则没有。对气候科学的信任与各种类型的不确定性感知密切相关，与对气候变化的关注间接相关。另外，对气候变化的更多了解与对每种气候科学不确定性的较弱认识有关。因此，建议为了增加公众对气候变化的关注，考虑到人们对气候研究的模棱两可可能尤其重要。增强对气候科学信任的努力似乎也很值得。

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