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People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning

机译：人员疏散前的风险识别及其在需求建模和计划中的作用

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Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate.
机译：疏散计划和管理涉及在需要采取此类行动的情况下估算出差需求。通常，这是根据人们的撤离决定来完成的，我们证明这与他们的风险意识密切相关。我们使用经验数据集显示海啸疏散行为，以证明风险识别并非客观风险的代名词，而是由风险教育，信息和社会人口统计资料等因素共同决定的，并且其随时间动态变化。基于这些发现，我们制定了有序的logit模型来描述风险识别，并结合潜在类模型来描述疏散选择。我们提出的疏散选择模型以及风险识别类可以定量评估减灾措施，风险教育和风险信息的影响。从风险识别模型获得的结果表明，在人们认识到自己的高风险的意义上，风险信息具有更大的影响。疏散选择模型的结果表明，不了解风险的人需要更长的时间进行疏散。

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