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Comparison of Risk Predicted by Multiple Norovirus Dose-Response Models and Implications for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

机译：多种诺如病毒剂量反应模型预测的风险比较及其对微生物定量风险评估的意义

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摘要

The application of quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) to understand and mitigate risks associated with norovirus is increasingly common as there is a high frequency of outbreaks worldwide. A key component ofQMRAis the dose-response analysis, which is the mathematical characterization of the association between dose and outcome. For Norovirus, multiple dose-response models are available that assume either a disaggregated or an aggregated intake dose. This work reviewed the dose-response models currently used in QMRA, and compared predicted risks from waterborne exposures (recreational and drinking) using all available dose-response models. The results found that the majority of published QMRAs of norovirus use the F-1(1) hypergeometric dose-response model with alpha = 0.04, beta = 0.055. This dose-response model predicted relatively high risk estimates compared to other dose-response models for doses in the range of 1-1,000 genomic equivalent copies. The difference in predicted risk among dose-response models was largest for small doses, which has implications for drinking water QMRAs where the concentration of norovirus is low. Based on the review, a set of best practices was proposed to encourage the careful consideration and reporting of important assumptions in the selection and use of dose-response models in QMRA of norovirus. Finally, in the absence of one best norovirus dose-response model, multiple models should be used to provide a range of predicted outcomes for probability of infection.
机译：由于全世界爆发的频率很高，因此使用定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）来了解和减轻与诺如病毒相关的风险越来越普遍。 QMRA的关键组成部分是剂量反应分析，这是剂量与结果之间关系的数学表征。对于诺如病毒，可以使用多种剂量反应模型，这些模型可以采用分类或累计摄入剂量。这项工作审查了目前在QMRA中使用的剂量反应模型，并使用所有可用的剂量反应模型比较了水暴露（娱乐和饮水）的预测风险。结果发现，大部分已发表的诺如病毒QMRA使用F-1（1）超几何剂量反应模型，α= 0.04，β= 0.055。与其他剂量反应模型相比，该剂量反应模型预测的相对危险度估计为1-1,000个基因组当量拷贝。在小剂量情况下，剂量反应模型之间的预测风险差异最大，这对诺如病毒浓度低的饮用水QMRA有影响。在审查的基础上，提出了一系列最佳实践，以鼓励在选择和使用诺如病毒的QMRA中剂量反应模型时认真考虑和报告重要的假设。最后，在没有最佳的诺如病毒剂量反应模型的情况下，应使用多种模型来提供一系列预测的感染可能性结果。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2017年第2期|245-264|共20页
  • 作者

    Van Abel Nicole; Schoen Mary E.; Kissel John C.; Meschke J. Scott;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Washington, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth Sci, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE,Suite 100, Seattle, WA 98105 USA;

    Soller Environm Berkeley Inc, Berkeley, CA USA;

    Univ Washington, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth Sci, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE,Suite 100, Seattle, WA 98105 USA;

    Univ Washington, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth Sci, 4225 Roosevelt Way NE,Suite 100, Seattle, WA 98105 USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Dose response; norovirus; QMRA; risk assessment;

    机译：剂量反应;诺如病毒;QMRA;风险评估;

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