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False Alarms and Missed Events: The Impact and Origins of Perceived Inaccuracy in Tornado Warning Systems

机译：虚假警报和遗漏事件：龙卷风预警系统中感知错误的影响和成因

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摘要

Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question-Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are-in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued.
机译：理论和传统观点认为，错误会破坏龙卷风预警系统的可信度，从而降低将来发布预警时个人遵守（即采取保护行动）的可能性。不幸的是，关于预警系统准确性对公众对龙卷风预警的反应影响的实证研究是不完整和无定论的。通过分析两组关系，本研究增加了现有研究。首先，我们评估准确性，可信度和警告响应的感知之间的关系。使用通过大型区域调查收集的数据，我们发现对国家气象局（NWS;负责发布龙卷风警告的机构）的信任增加了个人在响应假想警告时会选择采取保护性措施的可能性。更重要的是，我们发现，如理论所言，对警告系统准确性的主观理解与对NWS的信任和（通过扩展）陈述对未来警告的响应在系统上相关。研究的后半部分将调查数据与NWS警告和事件档案进行匹配，以调查一个关键的后续问题-为什么有些人会认为自己的警告系统准确，而另一些人却认为他们的系统容易出错？我们发现，主观感知部分是客观经验，知识和人口统计学特征的函数。当一并考虑时，这些发现支持以下论点：错误会影响人们对警告系统准确性的看法，进而反过来会影响人们对系统提供的信息的信任度，最终会影响到发出警告时如何做出响应的公共决策。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2015年第1期|44-56|共13页
  • 作者

    Joseph T. Ripberger; Carol L. Silva; Hank C. Jenkins-Smith; Deven E. Carlson; Mark James; Kerry G. Herron;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Risk and Crisis Management, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, OK, USA,120 David L Boren Blvd, Room 3106, Norman, OK 73072, USA;

    Department of Political Science, Center for Risk and Crisis Management, University of Oklahoma, OK, USA;

    Department of Political Science, Center for Energy, Security, and Society, University of Oklahoma, OK, USA;

    Department of Political Science, University of Oklahoma, OK, USA;

    Department of Political Science, Center for Risk and Crisis Management, University of Oklahoma, OK, USA;

    Center for Risk and Crisis Management, Center for Energy, Security, and Society, University of Oklahoma, OK, USA;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Severe weather; tornadoes; warning response;

    机译：恶劣天气;龙卷风警告回应;

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