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Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems

机译：电力系统风险和脆弱性分析的物理流量模型的替代拓扑性能度量

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摘要

Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist that can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. In this article, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically-oriented models to advanced physical-flow-based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this article is to compare performance estimates achieved with a spectrum of approaches typically used for risk and vulnerability analysis of electric power systems and evaluate if more simplified topological measures can be combined using statistical methods to be used as a surrogate for physical flow models. The results of our work provide guidance as to appropriate models or combinations of models to use when analyzing large-scale critical infrastructure systems, where simulation times quickly become insurmountable when using more advanced models, severely limiting the extent of analyses that can be performed.
机译：重要的基础设施系统必须既健壮又具有弹性，以确保社会运转。为了提高此类系统的性能，我们经常使用风险和漏洞分析来发现和解决系统漏洞。此类分析的关键组成部分是能够准确确定系统中各种故障类型的负面影响的能力。为此可以使用许多数学和仿真模型。但是，在关键基础设施的全面风险分析中，比较使用不同建模方法的影响的研究相对较少。在本文中，我们建议对这些模型进行分类，从简单的面向拓扑的模型到高级的基于物理流的模型。在这里，我们关注于电力系统，并提出了一项旨在了解在风险分析环境下使用的模型中的简单性与逼真度之间的权衡的研究。具体来说，本文的目的是比较使用通常用于电力系统风险和脆弱性分析的各种方法获得的性能估计，并评估是否可以使用统计方法结合更简化的拓扑措施以用作物理方法的替代方法。流模型。我们的工作结果为在分析大型关键基础设施系统时使用的适当模型或模型组合提供了指导，而在使用更高级的模型时，仿真时间很快变得不可逾越，从而严重限制了可进行分析的范围。

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