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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Development of an Interspecies Nested Dose-Response Model for Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis
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Development of an Interspecies Nested Dose-Response Model for Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis

机译：鸟分枝杆菌亚种副结核病的种间嵌套剂量反应模型的建立

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Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) causes chronic inflammation of the intestines in humans, ruminants, and other species. It is the causative agent of Johne's disease in cattle, and has been implicated as the causative agent of Crohn's disease in humans. To date, no quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for MAP utilizing a dose-response function exists. The objective of this study is to develop a nested dose-response model for infection from oral exposure to MAP utilizing data from the peer-reviewed literature. Four studies amenable to dose-response modeling were identified in the literature search and optimized to the one-parameter exponential or two-parameter beta-Poisson dose-response models. A nesting analysis was performed on all permutations of the candidate data sets to determine the acceptability of pooling data sets across host species. Three of four data sets exhibited goodness of fit to at least one model. All three data sets exhibited good fit to the beta-Poisson model, and one data set exhibited goodness of fit, and best fit, to the exponential model. Two data sets were successfully nested using the beta-Poisson model with parameters = 0.0978 and N-50 = 2.70 x 10(2) CFU. These data sets were derived from sheep and red deer host species, indicating successful interspecies nesting, and demonstrate the highly infective nature of MAP. The nested dose-response model described should be used for future QMRA research regarding oral exposure to MAP.
机译：鸟分枝杆菌副结核菌（MAP）会导致人类，反刍动物和其他物种肠道的慢性炎症。它是牛中约翰尼氏病的病原体，并已被认为是人类克罗恩氏病的病原体。迄今为止，尚不存在利用剂量反应功能进行MAP的定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）。这项研究的目的是利用同行评审文献中的数据，开发一种嵌套的剂量反应模型，用于口服口服MAP引起的感染。在文献检索中确定了四项适合剂量反应模型的研究，并针对一参数指数或两参数β-泊松剂量反应模型进行了优化。对候选数据集的所有排列进行嵌套分析，以确定跨宿主物种的合并数据集的可接受性。四个数据集中的三个显示出至少与一个模型的拟合优度。所有三个数据集都显示出与β-泊松模型的良好拟合，而一个数据集则显示出与指数模型的拟合优度和最佳拟合度。使用参数参数= 0.0978和N-50 = 2.70 x 10（2）CFU成功使用beta-泊松模型嵌套了两个数据集。这些数据集来自绵羊和马鹿的寄主物种，表明成功的种间筑巢，并证明了MAP的高度感染性。所述的嵌套剂量反应模型应用于未来QMRA关于口服MAP的研究。

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