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The Return Period Analysis of Natural Disasters with Statistical Modeling of Bivariate Joint Probability Distribution

机译:基于双变量联合概率分布统计模型的自然灾害返回期分析

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摘要

New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis.
机译:在过去的几年中,已经观察到自然灾害的新特征。已经发现,影响灾难形成机理,发生规律和主要特征的因素在本质上比以前认为的更为复杂和多样。随着不确定性的增加,需要进一步检查变量。本文讨论了自然灾害多变量分析的重要性和不足,并提出了一种估算回归期联合概率并进行风险分析的方法。内蒙古1990年至2008年的严重沙尘暴被作为案例研究来测试这种新方法,因为它们是地球上的正常现象和反复出现的气候现象。基于79个调查事件,并根据双变量沙尘暴定义,使用最大风速和持续时间的观测数据建立了严重沙尘暴的联合概率分布。计算了严重沙尘暴的联合返回期,并根据联合概率分析了相关风险。 copula功能能够准确模拟严重的沙尘暴灾害。所产生的联合回报期比单变量回报期更接近于现实中观察到的回报期,因此在减轻严重沙尘暴灾害,制定战略,计划设计和改善风险管理方面具有更大的价值。这项研究可能证明对基于风险的决策很有用。对多元分析方法的探索也可以为在自然灾害风险分析中的进一步应用奠定基础。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2013年第1期|134-145|共12页
  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,KeJi Building B#713, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China;

    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China,Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    copula; joint distribution; return period; risk analysis; severe dust storm disaster;

    机译:系词;联合分配;退货期风险分析;严重的沙尘暴灾难;

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