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Variability and Uncertainty Analysis of the Cross-Contamination Ratios of Salmonella During Pork Cutting

机译：猪肉切割过程中沙门氏菌交叉污染比的变异性和不确定性分析

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摘要

The transfer ratio of bacteria from one surface to another is often estimated from laboratory experiments and quantified by dividing the expected number of bacteria on the recipient surface by the expected number of bacteria on the donor surface. Yet, the expected number of bacteria on each surface is uncertain due to the limited number of colonies that are counted and/or samples that can be analyzed. The expected transfer ratio is, therefore, also uncertain and its estimate may exceed 1 if real transfer is close to 100%. In addition, the transferred fractions vary over experiments but it is unclear, using this approach, how to combine uncertainty and variability into one estimate for the transfer ratio. A Bayesian network model was proposed that allows the combination of uncertainty within one experiment and variability over multiple experiments and prevents inappropriate values for the transfer ratio. Model functionality was shown using data from a laboratory experiment in which the transfer of Salmonella was determined from contaminated pork meat to a butcher's knife, and vice versa. Recovery efficiency of bacteria from both surfaces was also determined and accounted for in the analysis. Transfer ratio probability distributions showed a large variability, with a mean value of 0.19 for the transfer of Salmonella from pork meat to the knife and 0.58 for the transfer of Salmonella from the knife to pork meat. The proposed Bayesian model can be used for analyzing data from similar study designs in which uncertainty should be combined with variability.
机译：细菌从一个表面到另一表面的转移率通常是通过实验室实验估算的，并通过将受体表面上的预期细菌数除以供体表面上的预期细菌数来量化。然而，由于计数的菌落和/或可分析的样品数量有限，每个表面上预期的细菌数量尚不确定。因此，预期的转移率也是不确定的，如果实际转移率接近100％，则其估计值可能会超过1。另外，转移的分数随实验而变化，但是使用这种方法尚不清楚如何将不确定性和可变性结合到转移率的一个估计中。提出了一种贝叶斯网络模型，该模型允许将一个实验中的不确定性与多个实验中的可变性相结合，并防止传输率的值不合适。使用来自实验室实验的数据显示了模型的功能，其中确定了沙门氏菌从受污染的猪肉到屠夫刀的转移，反之亦然。还确定了从两个表面回收细菌的效率，并在分析中进行了说明。转移比率概率分布显示出较大的变异性，沙门氏菌从猪肉到刀的转移平均值为0.19，沙门氏菌从刀到猪肉的转移平均值为0.58。提出的贝叶斯模型可用于分析类似研究设计中的数据，在这种研究中，不确定性应与变异性结合起来。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2013年第6期|1100-1115|共16页
  • 作者

    Joost Smid; Rob de Jonge; Arie H. Havelaar; Annemarie Pielaat;

  • 作者单位

    Laboratory for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology (LZO), National Institute for Public Health and the Environ-ment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1,3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands,Address correspondence to Joost Smid, Laboratory for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology (LZO), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;

    Laboratory for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology (LZO), National Institute for Public Health and the Environ-ment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1,3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;

    Laboratory for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology (LZO), National Institute for Public Health and the Environ-ment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1,3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands,Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, P.O.Box 80175,3508 TD Utrecht, The Netherlands;

    Laboratory for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology (LZO), National Institute for Public Health and the Environ-ment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1,3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Bayesian network; cross-contamination; microbial risk; pork; Salmonella;

    机译：贝叶斯网络交叉感染;微生物风险;猪肉;沙门氏菌;

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