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Validation of a Novel Air Toxic Risk Model with Air Monitoring

机译：通过空气监测验证新型空气中毒风险模型

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Three modeling systems were used to estimate human health risks from air pollution: two versions of MNRiskS (for Minnesota Risk Screening), and the USEPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). MNRiskS is a unique cumulative risk modeling system used to assess risks from multiple air toxics, sources, and pathways on a local to a state-wide scale. In addition, ambient outdoor air monitoring data were available for estimation of risks and comparison with the modeled estimates of air concentrations. Highest air concentrations and estimated risks were generally found in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and lowest risks in undeveloped rural areas. Emissions from mobile and area (nonpoint) sources created greater estimated risks than emissions from point sources. Highest cancer risks were via in-gestion pathway exposures to dioxins and related compounds. Diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde created the highest estimated inhalation health impacts. Model-estimated air concentrations were generally highest for NATA and lowest for the AERMOD version of MNRiskS. This validation study showed reasonable agreement between available measurements and model predictions, although results varied among pollutants, and predictions were often lower than measurements. The results increased confidence in identifying pollutants, pathways, geographic areas, sources, and receptors of potential concern, and thus provide a basis for informing pollution reduction strategies and focusing efforts on specific pollutants (diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde), geographic areas (urban centers), and source categories (nonpoint sources). The results heighten concerns about risks from food chain exposures to dioxins and PAHs. Risk estimates were sensitive to variations in methodologies for treating emissions, dispersion, deposition, exposure, and toxicity.
机译：三种建模系统用于评估空气污染对人类健康的风险：两种版本的MNRiskS（用于明尼苏达州的风险筛查）和USEPA国家空气毒性评估（NATA）。 MNRiskS是一个独特的累积风险建模系统，用于评估本地到州范围内多种空气有毒物质，来源和途径的风险。此外，还可以使用室外室外空气监测数据来估计风险，并与模拟的空气浓度估计值进行比较。通常在明尼阿波利斯-圣约翰发现最高的空气浓度和估计的风险。保罗市区，在欠发达的农村地区风险最低。来自移动和区域（非点）源的排放所产生的估计风险要大于来自点源的排放。最高的癌症风险是通过摄入途径暴露于二恶英和相关化合物。柴油颗粒，丙烯醛和甲醛对吸入健康的影响最大。对于NATA，模型估算的空气浓度通常最高，对于MNRiskS的AERMOD版本，其空气浓度最低。这项验证研究表明，尽管污染物之间的结果有所不同，但可用的测量值与模型预测值之间存在合理的一致性，而且预测值通常低于测量值。结果提高了人们对确定潜在关注的污染物，途径，地理区域，来源和受体的信心，从而为告知减少污染战略并着重于特定污染物（柴油颗粒，丙烯醛和甲醛），地理区域（城市中心）和来源类别（非点源）。结果加剧了人们对食物链中二恶英和PAHs暴露风险的担忧。风险估算对处理排放，分散，沉积，暴露和毒性的方法变化敏感。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2012年第1期|p.96-112|共17页
  • 作者

    Gregory C. Pratt; Mary Dymond; Kristie Ellickson; Jesse The;

  • 作者单位

    Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, 520 Lafayette Road, St. Paul, MN 55155,USA;

    Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, 520 Lafayette Road, St. Paul, MN 55155,USA;

    Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, 520 Lafayette Road, St. Paul, MN 55155,USA;

    Lakes Environmental Software, Waterloo, Ontario, N2V 2A9 Canada;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    air pollution; inhalation; modeling; multiple pathway;

    机译：空气污染;吸入造型;多途径;

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