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On Different Types of Uncertainties in the Context of the Precautionary Principle

机译：预防原则下的不同类型的不确定性

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Few policies for risk management have created more controversy than the precautionary principle. A main problem is the extreme number of different definitions and interpretations. Almost all definitions of the precautionary principle identify "scientific uncertainties" as the trigger or criterion for its invocation; however, the meaning of this concept is not clear. For applying the precautionary principle it is not sufficient that the threats or hazards are uncertain. A stronger requirement is needed. This article provides an in-depth analysis of this issue. We question how the scientific uncertainties are linked to the interpretation of the probability concept, expected values, the results from probabilistic risk assessments, the common distinction between aleatory uncertainties and epistemic uncertainties, and the problem of establishing an accurate prediction model (cause-effect relationship). A new classification structure is suggested to define what scientific uncertainties mean.
机译：很少有风险管理政策比预防原则引起更多争议。一个主要问题是不同定义和解释的数量过多。预防原则的几乎所有定义都将“科学不确定性”确定为触发该原则的触发因素或标准。但是，这个概念的含义尚不清楚。为了应用预防原则，仅对威胁或危害进行不确定是不够的。需要一个更严格的要求。本文提供了对该问题的深入分析。我们质疑科学不确定性如何与概率概念，期望值，概率风险评估的结果，偶然不确定性和认知不确定性之间的共同区别以及建立精确的预测模型（因果关系）的问题相关联）。建议使用新的分类结构来定义科学不确定性的含义。

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