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首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Development and Application of a Stochastic Epidemic Model for the Transmission of Salmonella Typhimurium at the Farm Level of the Pork Production Chain
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Development and Application of a Stochastic Epidemic Model for the Transmission of Salmonella Typhimurium at the Farm Level of the Pork Production Chain

机译：猪生产链农场水平上鼠伤寒沙门氏菌传播的随机流行病模型的建立和应用

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摘要

In previous work a deterministic model for the compartment level was built, taking into account the two different syndromes with which Salmonella Typhimurium appears at pig farms. Based on this model, a stochastic one was built in this work that simulated different com-partmental sizes, taking into account compartments of 200 to 400 pigs. Multiple scenarios of starting conditions of infection (SCI) ranging from 0.25 to 100% were tested for each population size. The effect of each of these two factors on the probability of disease extinctions and the prevalence of each of the classes of the model and the risk groups of pigs were estimated. The results showed that the compartment population had an inverse effect on the probability of disease extinction. On the other hand, low SCI resulted in high levels of early extinctions reaching 45%, while higher SCI led to high levels of late extinctions. Early extinctions resulted in the absence of the pathogen from the compartment, while late extinctions did not assure it. This effect shows that reducing the population of the compartment combined with appropriate cleaning and good farming practices could have a positive effect in the reduction of the risk of introducing S. Typhimurium into the slaughtering procedure. On the other hand, the profile of seroprevalence at slaughter age allows for risk characterization of the farm, given the relative stability and the small variation for higher SCI.
机译：在先前的工作中，考虑到伤寒沙门氏菌在养猪场出现的两种不同的综合症，建立了一个确定性的隔间水平模型。在此模型的基础上，这项工作建立了一个随机模型，该模型模拟了不同隔间的大小，并考虑了200至400头猪的隔间。对于每个人口规模，测试了从0.25％到100％范围内的多种感染起始条件（SCI）的多种情况。估计了这两个因素中的每一个对疾病灭绝的可能性的影响以及模型的每个类别和猪的危险组的患病率。结果表明，隔室种群对疾病灭绝的可能性具有反作用。另一方面，较低的SCI导致较高的早期灭绝水平达到45％，而较高的SCI导致较高的早期灭绝水平。早期的灭绝导致隔室中没有病原体，而晚期的灭绝并不能确保病原体。这种效果表明，减少隔间的人口，加上适当的清洁和良好的耕作规范，可以对减少将​​鼠伤寒沙门氏菌引入屠宰过程的风险产生积极的影响。另一方面，考虑到相对稳定性和较高SCI的较小变化，屠宰年龄的血清阳性率特征可用于农场的风险特征分析。

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