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Water Quality Failures in Distribution Networks-Risk Analysis Using Fuzzy Logic and Evidential Reasoning

机译：配水网络中的水质故障-基于模糊逻辑和证据推理的风险分析

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摘要

The evaluation of the risk of water quality failures in a distribution network is a challenging task given that much of the available data are highly uncertain and vague, and many of the mechanisms are not fully understood. Consequently, a systematic approach is required to handle quantitative-qualitative data as well as a means to update existing information when new knowledge and data become available. Five general pathways (mechanisms) through which a water quality failure can occur in the distribution network are identified in this article. These include contaminant intrusion, leaching and corrosion, biofilm formation and microbial regrowth, permeation, and water treatment breakthrough (including disinfection byproducts formation). The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a simplified example for water quality failures in a distribution network. This article builds upon the previous developments of aggregative risk analysis approach. Each basic risk item in a hierarchical framework is expressed by a triangular fuzzy number, which is derived from the composition of the likelihood of a failure event and the associated failure consequence. An analytic hierarchy process is used to estimate weights required for grouping noncommensurate risk sources. The evidential reasoning is proposed to incorporate newly arrived data for the updating of existing risk estimates. The exponential ordered weighted averaging operators are used for defuzzification to incorporate attitudinal dimension for risk management. It is envisaged that the proposed approach could serve as a basis to benchmark acceptable risks in water distribution networks.
机译：鉴于许多可用数据高度不确定且含糊不清，并且许多机制尚未完全理解，因此评估分配网络中水质故障的风险是一项艰巨的任务。因此，需要一种系统的方法来处理定量定性数据，以及在有新知识和新数据可用时更新现有信息的方法。本文确定了五种一般的途径（机制），通过这些途径可以在配电网络中发生水质故障。这些包括污染物侵入，浸出和腐蚀，生物膜形成和微生物再生，渗透和水处理突破（包括消毒副产物形成）。使用简化的示例对配电网中的水质故障进行了论证。本文以聚合风险分析方法的先前发展为基础。分层框架中的每个基本风险项均由三角模糊数表示，该三角模糊数是从故障事件的可能性和相关故障后果的组成中得出的。层次分析法用于估计将不相称风险源分组所需的权重。建议采用证据推理来合并新到达的数据，以更新现有的风险估计。指数有序加权平均算子用于解模糊以合并用于风险管理的态度维度。可以设想，所提议的方法可以作为基准，以对水分配网络中的可接受风险进行基准测试。

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