• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >An Integrated Physical Dispersion and Behavioral Response Model for Risk Assessment of Radiological Dispersion Device (RDD) Events
【24h】

An Integrated Physical Dispersion and Behavioral Response Model for Risk Assessment of Radiological Dispersion Device (RDD) Events

机译：物理分散和行为响应的集成模型，用于评估放射性分散装置（RDD）事件的风险

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

A radiological dispersion device (RDD) or "dirty" bomb is a conventional explosive wrapped in radiological material. Terrorists may use an RDD to disperse radioactive material across a populated area, causing casualties and/or economic damage. Nearly all risk assessment models for RDDs make unrealistic assumptions about public behavior in their health assessments, including assumptions that the public would stand outside in a single location indefinitely. In this article, we describe an approach for assessing the risks of RDD events incorporating both physical dispersion and behavioral response variables. The general approach is tested using the City of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania as a case study. Atmospheric models simulate an RDD attack and its likely fallout, while radiation exposure models assess fatal cancer risk. We model different geographical distributions of the population based on time of day. We evaluate aggregate health impacts for different public responses (i.e., sheltering-in-place, evacuating). We find that current RDD models in use can be improved with the integration of behavioral components. Using the results from the model, we show how risk varies across several behavioral and physical variables. We show that the best policy to recommend to the public depends on many different variables, such as the amount of trauma at ground zero, the capability of emergency responders to get trauma victims to local hospitals quickly and efficiently, how quickly evacuations can take place in the city, and the amount of shielding available for shelterers. Using a parametric analysis, we develop behaviorally realistic risk assessments, we identify variables that can affect an optimal risk reduction policy, and we find that decision making can be improved by evaluating the tradeoff between trauma and cancer fatalities for various RDD scenarios before they occur.
机译：放射线扩散装置（RDD）或“脏”炸弹是包裹在放射线材料中的常规炸药。恐怖分子可能使用RDD将放射性物质散布到人口稠密的地区，造成人员伤亡和/或经济损失。几乎所有用于RDD的风险评估模型都在其健康评估中对公众行为做出不切实际的假设，包括公众无限期地站在一个地方的假设。在本文中，我们描述了一种评估RDD事件风险的方法，该方法结合了物理分散和行为响应变量。使用宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡市作为案例研究测试了通用方法。大气模型模拟RDD攻击及其可能的后果，而辐射暴露模型评估致命的癌症风险。我们根据一天中的时间对人口的不同地理分布建模。我们针对不同的公众反应（即就地避难，疏散）评估总体健康影响。我们发现通过集成行为组件可以改善当前使用的RDD模型。使用模型的结果，我们展示了风险在多个行为和身体变量之间如何变化。我们表明，向公众推荐的最佳政策取决于许多不同的变量，例如零地面的创伤数量，应急人员迅速有效地将创伤受害者送往当地医院的能力，疏散的速度如何。城市以及庇护所可用的屏蔽量。使用参数分析，我们开发了行为上现实的风险评估，确定了可能影响最佳风险降低策略的变量，并且我们发现可以通过评估各种RDD场景下创伤与癌症死亡之间的权衡来改善决策制定。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号