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A framework for risk assessment of radiological dispersion device (RDD) events: Integrating physical dispersion and behavioral response models.

机译：放射性弥散装置（RDD）事件风险评估的框架：整合物理弥散和行为响应模型。

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A radiological dispersion device (RDD) or "dirty" bomb is a conventional explosive wrapped in radiological material. Terrorists may use an RDD to disperse radioactive material across a populated area, causing casualties and/or economic damage. Current RDD risk assessment models do not account for behavioral factors affecting risk. In this dissertation, we develop a behaviorally realistic risk assessment for RDD events. The methodology was developed using a comprehensive influence diagram, combining (1) physical dispersion variables, (2) behavioral response variables, (3) official detection, communication, and response variables, and (4) public health variables. We develop a plausible RDD scenario using the influence diagram. A physical dispersion and behavioral response model is applied to generate risk assessments for the RDD scenario. The physical dispersion and behavioral response model predicts trauma fatalities from the conventional explosive and long-term cancer fatalities from radiation exposure during sheltering and evacuating. Public behavior is treated parametrically in the model. The RDD scenario was also integrated into an elicitation procedure to understand how the public might behave in response to official orders to evacuate or shelter-in-place. Open-ended interviews were conducted with academic experts. Results from the interviews were used to develop a confirmatory questionnaire conducted with first responders in Pittsburgh, PA. Data collected from the confirmatory questionnaires were used to develop realistic distributions of public behavior during an RDD event. Elicited behavioral distributions alone suggest that resources should be invested to improve public compliance with blanket recommendations. We evaluate the costs of several policies for improving public compliance. By integrating these behavioral distributions with RDD risk assessments, we find that partial compliance reduces societal risk significantly more than perfect compliance. We suggest that resources should focus on studying communications and compliance for partial evacuations. A theoretical decision analysis concept is introduced known as the value of communication. Using the value of communication, the impact of various risk communications for emergency management of RDD events are evaluated and compared. The approach described in this thesis is a novel and effective approach for incorporating behavioral assumptions into risk assessments. It is also an effective structured approach for building an understanding of how the public will behave during an emergency event.
机译：放射线扩散装置（RDD）或“脏”炸弹是包裹在放射线材料中的常规炸药。恐怖分子可能使用RDD将放射性物质散布到人口稠密的地区，造成人员伤亡和/或经济损失。当前的RDD风险评估模型并未考虑影响风险的行为因素。在本文中，我们针对RDD事件开发了行为现实的风险评估。该方法是使用综合影响图开发的，结合了（1）身体分散变量，（2）行为反应变量，（3）官方检测，沟通和反应变量以及（4）公共卫生变量。我们使用影响图来开发一个合理的RDD场景。应用物理分散和行为响应模型为RDD场景生成风险评估。身体分散和行为反应模型可预测常规爆炸性爆炸造成的死亡人数，以及掩蔽和撤离期间的辐射暴露可预测长期癌症死亡人数。在模型中，对公共行为进行了参数化处理。 RDD方案也已集成到启发程序中，以了解公众如何响应官方撤离或安置的命令。与学术专家进行了不限成员名额的采访。访谈的结果被用于制定与宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡的第一反应者进行的确认性问卷。从确认性调查表中收集的数据用于在RDD事件期间建立公众行为的现实分布。仅凭行为自发的行为分配建议应投入资源，以提高公众对一揽子建议的遵守程度。我们评估了提高公众合规性的几项政策的成本。通过将这些行为分布与RDD风险评估相结合，我们发现部分合规可以比完全合规减少更多的社会风险。我们建议资源应集中于研究部分疏散的通信和合规性。引入了理论决策分析概念，即沟通的价值。利用沟通的价值，可以评估和比较各种风险沟通对RDD事件应急管理的影响。本文所描述的方法是一种将行为假设纳入风险评估的新颖有效的方法。这也是一种有效的结构化方法，可用于了解紧急事件中公众的行为。

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