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Quantitative Risk Assessment of Rabies Entering Great Britain from North America via Cats and Dogs

机译：狂犬病通过猫狗从北美进入英国的量化风险评估

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Great Britain has been rabies-free since 1922, which is often considered to be in part due to the strict laws requiring that imported cats and dogs be vaccinated and quarantined for 6 months immediately on entry into the country. Except for two isolated incidents, this quarantine policy has contributed to ensuring that Great Britain has remained free of rabies. In 2000, amendments to the UK quarantine laws were made and the Pet Travel Scheme (PETS) was launched for companion animals traveling from European Union countries and rabies-free islands. Since its introduction, it has been proposed that other countries including North America should be included within the UK scheme. A quantitative risk assessment was developed to assist in the policy decision to amend the long-standing quarantine laws for dogs and cats from North America. It was determined that the risk of rabies entry is very low and is dependent on the level of compliance (i.e., legally conforming to all of the required regulations) with PETS and the number of pets imported. Assuming 100% compliance with PETS and the current level of importation of cats and dogs from North America, the annual probability of importing rabies is lower for animals traveling via PETS (7.22 x 10~(-6), 95th percentile) than quarantine (1.01 x 10~(-5), 95th percentile). These results, and other scientific evidence, directly informed the decision to expand the PETS scheme to North America as of December 2002.
机译：自1922年以来，英国一直没有狂犬病，这在一定程度上被认为是部分原因是因为严格的法律要求进口的猫和狗在进入该国后必须立即接种疫苗并进行6个月的隔离。除了两个孤立的事件之外，这项检疫政策有助于确保英国免受狂犬病侵害。 2000年，对英国检疫法进行了修订，并启动了宠物旅行计划（PETS），用于从欧盟国家和无狂犬病岛旅行的伴侣动物。自引入以来，有人建议将包括北美在内的其他国家也纳入英国计划。制定了定量风险评估，以协助制定政策，以修订长期以来对北美猫狗的检疫法律。已确定狂犬病进入的风险非常低，并且取决于对PETS的遵守程度（即在法律上符合所有要求的法规）和进口宠物的数量。假设100％遵守PETS以及目前从北美进口猫和狗的水平，则通过PETS传播的动物（7.22 x 10〜（-6），第95个百分位数）的狂犬病年度进口概率要低于检疫（1.01） x 10〜（-5），第95个百分点）。这些结果以及其他科学证据直接决定了从2002年12月起将PETS计划扩展至北美的决定。

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