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What's Time Got to Do with It? Inattention to Duration in Interpretation of Survival Graphs

机译：什么时间去做呢？对生存图解释的持续时间不重视

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Reports of randomized clinical trials often use survival curves to summarize clinical outcomes over time and graphically demonstrate evidence of treatment effectiveness. Survival curves can also be used in patient communications to display how health risks accumulate over time. In a randomized survey experiment, administered online, we tested whether people viewing survival curves appropriately adjust their risk perceptions to account for the duration shown. Internet users (N = 864) were recruited from a demographically balanced U.S. panel. Participants read about a hypothetical disease and then viewed one of four survival graphs that displayed mortality risks with and without treatment. Survival graphs showed either a visually large or visually small difference between treatments and were labeled to represent either 5-year or 15-year risk statistics. Participants then provided ratings of disease seriousness, as well as treatment effectiveness for each possible treatment. Variations in ratings corresponded more with visual dissimilarity than with changes in the statistical risk exhibited, with participants perceiving somewhat greater disease seriousness and significant differences in treatment effectiveness in large visual difference graphs. We conclude that when people interpret survival curves, they often fail to sufficiently account for the timeframe represented and perceive more risk and larger differences when identical risks are displayed over longer periods of time. We recommend that all presentations of survival graphics, whether to patients, physicians, or scientists, emphasize duration information (e.g., in the title) and remind readers that attending to graph axis labels is the only way to pierce these visual illusions.
机译：随机临床试验的报告经常使用生存曲线来总结一段时间内的临床结果，并以图形方式显示治疗效果的证据。生存曲线也可以用于患者交流中，以显示健康风险如何随时间累积。在一项在线进行的随机调查实验中，我们测试了查看生存曲线的人是否适当地调整了他们的风险感知以说明所示的持续时间。网际网路使用者（N = 864）是由人口平衡的美国专家小组招募而来。参与者阅读了一种假设的疾病，然后查看了四个生存图之一，该图显示了有和没有治疗的死亡风险。生存图显示治疗之间的视觉差异或视觉差异，并标记为代表5年或15年风险统计数据。然后，参与者提供疾病严重性的等级以及每种可能治疗的治疗效果。评分差异与视觉差异相比，与所显示的统计风险的变化更相符，在较大的视觉差异图中，参与者认为疾病的严重性和治疗效果存在显着差异。我们得出的结论是，当人们解释生存曲线时，当相同的风险在更长的时间段内显示出来时，他们往往无法充分说明所表示的时间框架，并意识到更多的风险和更大的差异。我们建议所有向患者，医生或科学家展示的生存图形，都应强调持续时间信息（例如标题中的信息），并提醒读者注意图形轴标签是刺穿这些视觉幻觉的唯一方法。

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