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A Risk Assessment for Occupational Acrylonitrile Exposure Using Epidemiology Data

机译：流行病学数据对职业性丙烯腈暴露的风险评估

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摘要

The extensive data from the Blair et al. epidemiology study of occupational acrylonitrile exposure among 25,460 workers in eight plants in the United States provide an excellent opportunity to update quantitative risk assessments for this widely used commodity chemical. We employ the semiparametric Cox relative risk (RR) regression model with a cumulative . exposure metric to model cause-specific mortality from lung cancer and all other causes. The separately estimated cause-specific cumulative hazards are then combined to provide an overall estimate of age-specific mortality risk. Age-specific estimates of the additional risk of lung cancer mortality associated with several plausible occupational exposure scenarios are obtained. For age 70, these estimates are all markedly lower than those generated with the cancer potency estimate provided in the USEPA acrylonitrile risk assessment This result is consistent with the failure of recent occupational studies to confirm elevated lung cancer mortality among acrylonitrile-exposed workers as was originally reported by O'Berg, and it calls attention to the importance of using high-quality epidemiology data in the risk assessment process.
机译：布莱尔等人的大量数据。在美国八家工厂的25,460名工人中，职业性丙烯腈接触的流行病学研究为更新这种广泛使用的商品化学品的定量风险评估提供了极好的机会。我们采用具有累积的半参数Cox相对风险（RR）回归模型。暴露量度模型来模拟肺癌和所有其他原因的特定原因死亡率。然后将单独估计的特定原因引起的累积危害进行合并，以提供特定年龄段的死亡风险的总体估计。获得了与几种可能的职业暴露情景相关的肺癌死亡的额外风险的特定年龄估计值。对于70岁，这些估计值均明显低于USEPA丙烯腈风险评估中提供的对癌症效力的估计结果。该结果与最近的职业研究未能证实接触丙烯腈的工人中肺癌死亡率升高的最初结果相符。由O'Berg报告，并呼吁注意在风险评估过程中使用高质量流行病学数据的重要性。

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