• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Risk Management for Leontief-Based Interdependent Systems
【24h】

Risk Management for Leontief-Based Interdependent Systems

机译：基于Leontief的相互依赖系统的风险管理

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

When stricken by a terrorist attack, a war, or a natural disaster, an economic unit or a critical infrastructure may suffer significant loss of productivity. More importantly, due to interdepen-dency or interconnectedness, this initial loss may propagate into other systems and eventually lead to much greater derivative loss. This belongs to what is known as a cascading effect. It is demonstrated in this article that the cascading effect and the derivative loss can be significantly reduced by effective risk management. This is accomplished by deliberately distributing the initial inoperability to other systems so that the total loss (or inoperability) is minimized. The optimal distribution strategy is found by a linear programming technique. The same risk management can also be applied to situations where objectives need to be prioritized. A case study featuring 12 economic sectors illustrates the theory. The result suggests that using the same amount of resources, minimizing risk (inoperability) of infrastructures will generally give rise to highest payoff, whereas overlooking it may result in greatest total loss. The framework developed in this work uses a steady-state approach that applies primarily to managing situations where the attack is catastrophic resulting in very long recovery time.
机译：当遭受恐怖袭击，战争或自然灾害袭击时，经济部门或关键基础设施可能会遭受生产力的重大损失。更重要的是，由于相互依赖或相互联系，这种初始损耗可能会传播到其他系统中，并最终导致更大的导数损耗。这属于所谓的级联效应。本文证明，通过有效的风险管理，可以显着降低级联效应和衍生工具损失。这是通过有意将初始不可操作性分配给其他系统来实现的，从而使总损失（或不可操作性）最小化。最佳分配策略是通过线性规划技术找到的。同样的风险管理也可以应用于需要确定目标优先级的情况。一个以12个经济部门为特色的案例研究说明了这一理论。结果表明，使用相同数量的资源，将基础结构的风险（不可操作性）最小化通常会带来最高的回报，而忽略它可能会导致最大的总损失。本文中开发的框架使用一种稳态方法，该方法主要适用于管理攻击性灾难性情况，导致恢复时间非常长的情况。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号