• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Risk analysis >Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis for a Weed Risk Assessment System
【24h】

Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis for a Weed Risk Assessment System

机译：杂草风险评估系统的定量不确定性分析

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Weed risk assessments (WRA) are used to identify plant invaders before introduction. Unfortunately, very few incorporate uncertainty ratings or evaluate the effects of uncertainty, a fundamental risk component. We developed a probabilistic model to quantitatively evaluate the effects of uncertainty on the outcomes of a question-based WRA tool for the United States. In our tool, the uncertainty of each response is rated as Negligible, Low, Moderate, or High. We developed the model by specifying the likelihood of a response changing for each uncertainty rating. The simulations determine if responses change, select new responses, and sum the scores to determine the risk rating. The simulated scores reveal potential variation in WRA risk ratings. In testing with 204 species assessments, the ranges of simulated risk scores increased with greater uncertainty, and analyses for most species produced simulated risk ratings that differed from the baseline WRA rating. Still, the most frequent simulated rating matched the baseline rating for every High Risk species, and for 87% of all tested species. The remaining 13% primarily involved ambiguous Low Risk results. Changing final ratings based on the uncertainty analysis results was not justified here because accuracy (match between WRA tool and known risk rating) did not improve. Detailed analyses of three species assessments indicate that assessment uncertainty may be best reduced by obtaining evidence for unanswered questions, rather than obtaining additional evidence for questions with responses. This analysis represents an advance in interpreting WRA results, and has enhanced our regulation and management of potential weed species.
机译：引入之前，杂草风险评估（WRA）用于识别植物入侵者。不幸的是，很少有人纳入不确定性评级或评估不确定性（基本风险成分）的影响。我们开发了一个概率模型，用于定量评估不确定性对基于问题的WRA工具在美国的结果的影响。在我们的工具中，每个响应的不确定性评定为“可忽略”，“低”，“中”或“高”。我们通过指定每个不确定性等级的响应变化的可能性来开发模型。模拟确定响应是否发生变化，选择新的响应以及对分数求和以确定风险等级。模拟分数显示了WRA风险等级的潜在变化。在204种物种评估的测试中，模拟风险评分的范围随着不确定性的增加而增加，并且大多数物种的分析得出的模拟风险评分与基线WRA评分有所不同。尽管如此，最常见的模拟评分与每种高风险物种的基线评分相匹配，并且占所有测试物种的87％。其余13％主要涉及模糊的低风险结果。由于不确定性（WRA工具与已知风险等级之间的匹配）并未提高，因此根据不确定性分析结果更改最终等级并不合理。对三种物种评估的详细分析表明，通过获取未回答问题的证据，而不是获取具有答案的问题的其他证据，可以最好地降低评估不确定性。该分析代表了在解释WRA结果方面的进步，并增强了我们对潜在杂草物种的监管和管理。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号