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Flood Risk Perceptions and Insurance Choice: Do Decisions in the Floodplain Reflect Overoptimism?

机译:洪水风险感知和保险选择:洪泛区的决策是否反映了过度乐观?

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摘要

In the presence of rare disasters, risk perceptions may not always align with actual risks. These perceptions can nevertheless influence an individual's willingness to mitigate risks through activities such as purchasing flood insurance. In a survey of Maryland floodplain residents, we find that stated risk perceptions predict voluntary flood insurance take-up, while perceptions themselves varied widely among surveyed residents, owing in large part to differences in past flood experience. We use a formal test for overoptimism in risk perceptions and find that, on aggregate, floodplain residents are overly optimistic about flood risks.
机译:在发生罕见灾害的情况下,风险感知可能并不总是与实际风险保持一致。但是,这些看法可能会影响个人通过购买洪水保险之类的活动来降低风险的意愿。在对马里兰州洪泛区居民的调查中,我们发现,既定的风险观念可预测自愿采取洪水保险,而受调查居民之间的观念本身差异很大,这在很大程度上是由于过去洪水经验的差异。我们对风险感知过度乐观进行了正式测试,发现总体而言,洪泛区居民对洪灾风险过于乐观。

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