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Influence of risk factors and past events on flood resilience in coastal megacities: Comparative analysis of NYC and Shanghai

机译:风险因素和过去事件对沿海特大城市洪水抗灾力的影响:纽约与上海的对比分析

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摘要

Coastal flood protection measures have been widely implemented to improve flood resilience. However, protection levels vary among coastal megacities globally. This study compares the distinct flood protection standards for two coastal megacities, New York City and Shanghai, and investigates potential influences such as risk factors and past flood events. Extreme value analysis reveals that, compared to NYC Shanghai faces a significantly higher flood hazard. Flood inundation analysis indicates that Shanghai has a higher exposure to extreme flooding. Meanwhile, Shanghai's urban development, population, and economy have increased much faster than NYC's over the last three decades. These risk factors provide part of the explanation for the implementation of a relatively high level of protection (e.g. reinforced concrete sea-wall designed for a 200-year flood return level) in Shanghai and low protection (e.g. vertical brick and stone walls and sand dunes) in NYC. However, individual extreme flood events (typhoons in 1962, 1974, and 1981) seem to have had a greater impact on flood protection decision-making in Shanghai, while NYC responded significantly less to past events (with the exception of Hurricane Sandy). Climate change, sea level rise, and ongoing coastal development are rapidly changing the hazard and risk calculus for both cities and both would benefit from a more systematic and dynamic approach to coastal protection.
机译:沿海防洪措施已得到广泛实施,以提高防洪能力。但是,全球沿海大城市的保护水平各不相同。这项研究比较了纽约和上海这两个沿海特大城市的独特防洪标准,并研究了潜在的影响因素,例如危险因素和过去的洪水事件。极值分析表明,与纽约市相比,上海面临更大的洪水灾害。洪水泛滥分析表明,上海遭受极端洪灾的可能性更高。同时,过去三十年来,上海的城市发展,人口和经济增长速度远远超过纽约。这些风险因素为上海实施相对较高的保护水平(例如,为200年防洪等级设计的钢筋混凝土海堤)和较低保护水平(例如,垂直砖墙,石墙和沙丘)提供了部分解释。 )。但是,个别极端洪水事件(1962年,1974年和1981年的台风)似乎对上海的防洪决策产生了更大的影响,而纽约市对过去的事件的响应却大大减少了(飓风桑迪除外)。气候变化,海平面上升和持续的沿海开发正在迅速改变这两个城市的灾害和风险计算,而且这两者都将受益于更加系统和动态的海岸保护方法。

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