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Evaluating Flood Resilience Strategies for Coastal Megacities

机译：评估沿海特大城市的防洪能力策略

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摘要

Recent flood disasters in the United States (2005, 2008, 2012); the Philippines (2012, 2013); and Britain (2014) illustrate how vulnerable coastal cities are to storm surge flooding. Floods caused the largest portion of insured losses among all catastrophes around the world in 2013. Population density in flood-prone coastal zones and megacities is expected to grow by 25% by 2050; projected climate change and sea level rise may further increase the frequency and/or severity of large-scale floods. Despite trillions of dollars of assets located in coastal flood-prone areas, investments in protection have often been inadequate, postponed for short-term economic reasons, for lack of consensus on how to properly evaluate the return on investment, or from the fear of making irreversible choices that become suboptimal over time. To help inform policy decisions, we have developed a multidisci-plinary scientific approach to evaluate flood management strategies. It combines probabilistic risk assessment of hurricanes and storm surge with vulnerability determination of exposed assets at a census level, accounting for sources of uncertainty and the timing of investments in storm-surge flood-risk protection. We applied this methodology to New York City (NYC}-one of the most exposed coastal megacities-working with local policy-makers.
机译：美国最近的洪水灾害（2005年，2008年，2012年）；菲律宾（2012，2013）;和英国（2014年）说明了沿海城市在风暴潮泛滥中的脆弱性。 2013年，洪水在全球所有灾难中造成了最大的保险损失。到2050年，洪水多发的沿海地区和特大城市的人口密度预计将增长25％；预计的气候变化和海平面上升可能会进一步增加大规模洪水的发生频率和/或严重性。尽管沿海易发生洪水的地区有数万亿美元的资产，但出于短期经济原因，出于对如何正确评估投资回报缺乏共识或出于担心获得保护的考虑，对保护的投资经常不足，因此被推迟不可逆的选择随着时间的流逝而变得次优。为了帮助制定政策决策，我们开发了一种多学科的科学方法来评估洪水管理策略。它结合了飓风和风暴潮的概率风险评估与人口普查级别的暴露资产脆弱性确定，同时考虑了不确定性来源和风暴潮洪水风险保护投资的时机。我们将此方法应用于与当地政策制定者合作的纽约市（NYC}，纽约市是最易受感染的沿海大城市之一。

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  • 来源
    《Science》 |2014年第6183期|473-475|共3页
  • 作者

    Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts; W. J. Wouter Botzen; Kerry Emanuel; Ning Lin; Hans de Moel; Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan;

  • 作者单位

    Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, 1081HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands;

    Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, 1081HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands;

    Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA;

    Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, 1081HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands;

    Center for Risk Management and Operations and Information Managment Department, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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