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首页> 外文期刊>The Science of the Total Environment >A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater
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A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater

机译：一个越来越受限制的地下水的全球食品供应适应途径

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Many of the world's major freshwater aquifers are being exploited unsustainably, with some projected to approach environmentally unsafe drawdown limits within the 21st century. Given that aquifer depletion tends to occur in important crop producing regions, the prospect of running dry poses a significant threat to global food security. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to explore the response of land use and agriculture sectors to severe constraints on global water resources. We simulate a scenario in which a number of important groundwater aquifers become depleted to the point where further water withdrawal is unviable, either due to excessive extraction costs or environmental limits being reached. Results are then benchmarked against a scenario that neglects constraints on water withdrawals. We find that groundwater depletion and associated water price increases drive two distinct responses in the agriculture sector: an expansion of rain fed agriculture, and a shift in irrigated crop production toward regions with cheaper water resources. Losses in crop production are most pronounced in water stressed regions where groundwater is being depleted unsustainably to meet irrigation demands-namely northwest India, Pakistan, the Middle East, western United States, Mexico, and Central Asia. While these results highlight substantial risks for the affected regional agricultural economies, we show that modest changes in irrigation and location of crop growth, in a world with frictionless trade, could ensure global food demands are met despite severe water constraints. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：许多世界各种主要的淡水含水层都是不可持续的，其中一些预计将在21世纪内接近环境不安全的降低限制。鉴于含水层枯竭往往发生在重要的作物产区中，运行干燥的前景对全球粮食安全构成了重大威胁。在这里，我们使用全球变更评估模型（GCAM）来探索土地利用和农业部门对全球水资源的严重限制。我们模拟了一种情景，其中许多重要的地下水含水层耗尽到进一步的水戒烟是不可行的点，这是由于达到过度的提取成本或正在达到环境限制。结果，反对忽视措施对水的限制的情况进行基准测试。我们发现地下水耗尽和相关的水价增加了农业部门的两种不同的反应：雨粮农业的扩张，以及灌溉作物生产的转变为具有更便宜的水资源的地区。作物生产中的损失在水中的损失中最为明显，地下水正在耗尽，以满足灌溉需求 - 即西北印度，巴基斯坦，中东，西部，美国，墨西哥和中亚。虽然这些结果凸显了受影响的区域农业经济体的大量风险，但在禁烟贸易的世界中，灌溉和作物地点的灌溉和地点变化可以确保尽管严重的防水限制，可以确保全球粮食需求。 （c）2019 Elsevier B.v.保留所有权利。

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