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首页> 外文期刊>The Singapore economic review >ESTIMATING MALAYSIA'S OUTPUT GAP: HAVE WE CLOSED THE GAP?
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ESTIMATING MALAYSIA'S OUTPUT GAP: HAVE WE CLOSED THE GAP?

机译：估计马来西亚的输出差距：我们是否缩小了差距？

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摘要

The concepts of potential output and output gap are central to the policymakers' analytical work in providing guidance to policy decisions. This paper presents three different estimation approaches for the Malaysian economy, namely, the univariate, multivariate and structural models. While the multivariate and structural models are mainly underpinned by theory and captured the concept of potential output better, most policymakers still maintain a suite of models to preserve diversity. Diversity provides a greater scope for cross-checking the robustness of results. The paper attempts to contribute by first, providing a critical assessment of the different models in estimating potential output and the output gap, and, second, the usefulness of each models in terms of assessing the drivers of future potential output, predicting price trends and identifying sources of inflation in the economy.
机译：潜在产出和产出缺口的概念对于政策制定者为政策决策提供指导的分析工作至关重要。本文介绍了马来西亚经济的三种不同的估算方法，即单变量，多元和结构模型。尽管多元模型和结构模型主要由理论支撑，并更好地把握了潜在产出的概念，但大多数政策制定者仍维持一套模型来保持多样性。多样性为交叉检查结果的鲁棒性提供了更大的范围。本文试图通过以下方式做出贡献：首先，对不同模型进行重要评估，以估计潜在产出和产出缺口；其次，每种模型在评估未来潜在产出的驱动因素，预测价格趋势和识别方面的有用性。经济中的通胀来源。

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