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首页> 外文期刊>The Singapore economic review >ESTIMATING MALAYSIA'S OUTPUT GAP: HAVE WE CLOSED THE GAP?
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ESTIMATING MALAYSIA'S OUTPUT GAP: HAVE WE CLOSED THE GAP?

机译：估计马来西亚的产出差距：我们关闭了差距吗？

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摘要

The concepts of potential output and output gap are central to the policymakers' analytical work in providing guidance to policy decisions. This paper presents three different estimation approaches for the Malaysian economy, namely, the univariate, multivariate and structural models. While the multivariate and structural models are mainly underpinned by theory and captured the concept of potential output better, most policymakers still maintain a suite of models to preserve diversity. Diversity provides a greater scope for cross-checking the robustness of results. The paper attempts to contribute by first, providing a critical assessment of the different models in estimating potential output and the output gap, and, second, the usefulness of each models in terms of assessing the drivers of future potential output, predicting price trends and identifying sources of inflation in the economy.
机译：潜在产出和产出差距的概念是政策制定者的分析工作，为政策决策提供指导。本文为马来西亚经济提供了三种不同的估算方法，即单变量，多变量和结构模型。虽然多变量和结构模型主要受到理论的基础，而且捕获潜在输出的概念更好，但大多数政策制定者仍然维持套件以保留多样性。多样性为交叉检查结果的稳健性提供了更大的范围。本文试图首先贡献，为估算潜在产出和产出差距的不同模型提供批判性评估，而第二，在评估未来潜在产出的驱动因素，预测价格趋势和识别方面的每个模型的有用性。经济通货膨胀源。

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