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CATALYST OF BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN EAST ASIA

机译：东亚商业周期同步催化剂

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The essential question this paper seeks to answer is whether the business cycle co-movement in East Asia are fostered by internal bilateral trade within the region, specifically, intra-industry trade or by external forces like the influence of the world's largest economy, namely, the United States. This paper examines the extent and robustness of the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for nine East Asian countries in the period 1965-2008. Unlike previous studies which assume away the region's concurrent connection with the rest of the world, in our regressions we control for both the US effect and the exchange rate co-movement in the region. We find that the coefficient estimates for intra-industry trade intensity remain robust and significant even after controlling for the US effect and the exchange rate co-movement. The findings confirm that regional intra-industry trade fosters business cycle correlations among countries in East Asia.
机译：本文寻求回答的基本问题是，东亚的商业周期协同运动是由该地区内部的内部双边贸易（特别是行业内贸易）还是诸如世界最大经济体的影响之类的外部力量促进的，美国。本文研究了1965-2008年间9个东亚国家贸易强度与商业周期同步之间关系的程度和稳健性。与先前的研究假设该地区与世界其他地区并存的联系不同，在我们的回归分析中，我们同时控制了美国效应和该地区的汇率共同变动。我们发现，即使在控制了美国效应和汇率共同变动之后，行业内贸易强度的系数估计仍保持稳健且显着。研究结果证实，区域内行业内贸易促进了东亚国家之间的商业周期相关性。

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