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首页> 外文期刊>The Singapore economic review >LONG-RUN EFFECT OF A DISASTER: CASE STUDY ON THE KOBE EARTHQUAKE
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LONG-RUN EFFECT OF A DISASTER: CASE STUDY ON THE KOBE EARTHQUAKE

机译：灾害的长期影响：神户地震的个案研究

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摘要

In 1995, the Kobe earthquake occurred in the second largest economic region of Japan, and its economic damages were accounted around 10 trillion yen. This paper presents an empirical investigation of long-run economic effects of the event based on a time-series data. The results indicate that the event had created statistically significant deviations from the pre-earthquake growth path of Kobe. In addition, the comparison with the projected pre-event growth path revealed that the long-run effects have resulted in a steady decline of per capita GRP, while the short-run impacts led to some positive impacts from recovery and reconstruction during the first several years.
机译：1995年，神户大地震发生在日本第二大经济区，经济损失约10万亿日元。本文根据时间序列数据对事件的长期经济影响进行了实证研究。结果表明，该事件与神户地震前的生长路径存在统计学差异。此外，与预测的事前增长路径的比较表明，长期影响导致人均GRP稳定下降，而短期影响导致前几个阶段的恢复和重建产生了一些积极影响年份。

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