AN INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY FOR REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC LOSS ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE: A CASE STUDY OF TEHRAN

Aloughareh Iman Rahimi; Ashtiany Mohsen Ghafory; Nasserasadi Kiarash

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AN INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY FOR REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC LOSS ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE: A CASE STUDY OF TEHRAN

机译：区域宏观经济损失地震的综合方法：以德黑兰为例

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Rapid unmanaged growth of population and properties in metropolitan areas has increased the societal vulnerability to disasters. While the first step in disaster economic risk management is the quantification of economic losses, modeling unexpected events by equilibrium-oriented economic models which assume gradual and incremental changes over time and uniform spatial impacts poses analytical challenges. In this paper an integrated, operational methodology for evaluating the effects of earthquake on the economy based on the various types of losses and their relations is developed. A case study of Tehran shows future losses caused by studied earthquake scenarios will be more than 70% of gross regional product (GRP). Finally, a number of solutions for reducing negative impacts are introduced.

机译：大都市地区人口和财产的不受控制的迅速增长增加了社会对灾害的脆弱性。虽然灾难经济风险管理的第一步是对经济损失进行量化，但通过以均衡为导向的经济模型对意外事件进行建模，这些模型假设随着时间的推移会逐渐发生增量变化，并产生统一的空间影响，这会带来分析上的挑战。本文提出了一种综合的，可操作的方法，用于根据各种损失及其关系评估地震对经济的影响。德黑兰的一个案例研究表明，由研究的地震场景造成的未来损失将超过地区生产总值（GRP）的70％。最后，介绍了许多减少负面影响的解决方案。

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来源
《The Singapore economic review》 |2016年第4期|1550025.1-1550025.24|共24页
作者
Aloughareh Iman Rahimi; Ashtiany Mohsen Ghafory; Nasserasadi Kiarash;
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作者单位

Islamic Azad Univ, Sci & Res Branch, Dept Civil Engn, Tehran, Iran|Simon Bolivar Blvd,Ashrafi Isfahani Highway, Tehran, Iran;

Islamic Azad Univ, Sci & Res Branch, Dept Civil Engn, Tehran, Iran|Simon Bolivar Blvd,Ashrafi Isfahani Highway, Tehran, Iran;

Univ Zanjan, Dept Engn, Zanjan, Iran;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Economic risk management; economic impacts; disasters economic losses; equilibrium-oriented macroeconomic models; input-output analysis; development studies;

机译：经济风险管理;经济影响;灾害经济损失;均衡的宏观经济模型;投入产出分析;发展研究;

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1. Application of the FEMA-P58 methodology for regional earthquake loss prediction [J] . Zeng Xiang, Lu Xinzheng, Yang T. Y., Natural Hazards . 2016,第1期

机译：FEMA-P58方法在区域地震损失预测中的应用
2. Resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation: a case study of Tehran, Iran [J] . Pantea Vaziri, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Natural Hazards . 2010,第3期

机译：减轻区域地震风险的资源分配：以伊朗德黑兰为例
3. Resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation: a case study of Tehran, Iran [J] . Pantea Vaziri, Rachel A. Davidson, Linda K. Nozick, Natural Hazards . 2010,第3期

机译：减轻区域地震风险的资源分配：以伊朗德黑兰为例
4. A study on Analysis of Macroeconomic Loss Risk of Earthquakes: Take Chengdu City as an Example [C] . Qing Wu Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Committee of China Association for Disaster Prevention . 2018

机译：地震宏观经济损失风险分析研究：以成都市为例
5. An indirect loss estimation methodology to account for regional earthquake damage to highway bridges. [D] . Tirasirichai, Chakkaphan. 2007

机译：一种间接损失估算方法，用于解决区域地震对公路桥梁的损害。
6. People’s perspectives and expectations on preparedness against earthquakes: Tehran case study [O] . Katayoun Jahangiri, Yasamin O Izadkhah, Ali Montazeri, 2010

机译：人们对地震准备的看法和期望：德黑兰案例研究
7. A study on Analysis of Macroeconomic Loss Risk of Earthquakes mTake Chengdu City as an Example [O] . Qing Wu 2018

机译：地震宏观经济损失风险分析研究成都市作为示例

AN INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY FOR REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC LOSS ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE: A CASE STUDY OF TEHRAN

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