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An indirect loss estimation methodology to account for regional earthquake damage to highway bridges.

机译：一种间接损失估算方法，用于解决区域地震对公路桥梁的损害。

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摘要

Earthquakes are one of the most serious natural disasters. They not only cause fatalities and injuries, but also result in infrastructure damage, social effects, and economic impacts. Without appropriate preventive action plans and mitigation policies, unforeseen natural catastrophes can cause tremendous losses, as evident for the 2005 Hurricane Katrina in the southern coastal United States (particular in New Orleans) and the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in Southern California. However, policymakers generally focus only on the losses directly caused by the earthquake, or more specifically the direct losses caused from the destruction of the infrastructure. They tend to overlook the consequences from these losses, such as business disruptions or reductions in final demand. This study proposes an integrated framework to estimate the indirect economic loss due to damaged bridges within the highway system from an earthquake event. The framework is designed to be general and convenient to apply to other study regions. In this dissertation, a simulated earthquake scenario centered in St. Louis Missouri with a magnitude 7.0 was used as a case study. The research results have clearly shown that the indirect losses are significant when compared to the direct loss. Policymakers can apply this study framework and the results as a guide and decision tool for developing an appropriate preventive action plan to reduce the risk and potential losses before the earthquake occurs.
机译：地震是最严重的自然灾害之一。它们不仅造成死亡和伤害，还导致基础设施损坏，社会影响和经济影响。如果没有适当的预防措施计划和缓解政策，不可预见的自然灾害可能会造成巨大的损失，2005年美国南部沿海（特别是新奥尔良）的卡特里娜飓风和1994年南加州的北岭大地震就是明显的例子。但是，决策者通常只关注地震直接造成的损失，或更具体地说，是破坏基础设施造成的直接损失。他们往往忽略了这些损失的后果，例如业务中断或最终需求减少。这项研究提出了一个综合框架，以估算由于地震而造成的公路系统桥梁损坏造成的间接经济损失。该框架旨在通用且方便应用于其他研究区域。本文以圣路易斯密苏里州为中心的7.0级地震模拟为例。研究结果清楚地表明，与直接损失相比，间接损失是巨大的。政策制定者可以将此研究框架和结果作为指导和决策工具，以制定适当的预防措施计划，以减少地震发生前的风险和潜在损失。

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