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Operational Reliability Assessment of Integrated Heat and Electricity Systems Considering the Load Uncertainties

机译：考虑负载不确定性的综合热电系统的操作可靠性评估

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摘要

The wide deployment of combined heat and power (CHP) has intensified the interdependence between district heating network (DHN) and electric power system. Under such circumstances, the operational reliability assessment of the integrated heat and electricity system (IHES) becomes a significant issue, that has not been comprehensively studied before. In this paper, the reliability models of the coupling devices in the IHES, i.e., CHP units and heat pump (HP) units, are first developed considering two interdependent performance variables. Energy loads are represented by fuzzy multi-state models to capture the uncertainties due to the forecast, model, and data errors. The scenario-based combined heat and power dispatch (CHPD) model is proposed to calculate the nodal reliability indices. Several techniques are utilized to improve the computation efficiency of the reliability assessment technique. First, the traditional universal generating function (UGF) method is extended to the IHES context to combine the coupling device states and consequently reduce the number of scenarios that need to be considered. Second, a hydraulic-thermal decomposition technique is proposed to decompose the CHPD model into two linear programming (LP) models that can be iteratively solved. Case study illustrates the proposed reliability assessment framework and the effectiveness of the solution technique.
机译：组合热量和功率（CHP）的广泛部署加剧了地区供热网络（DHN）和电力系统之间的相互依存。在这种情况下，综合热电系统（ISH）的操作可靠性评估成为一个重要的问题，以前尚未全面研究过。在本文中，首先考虑两个相互依存性能变量首先开发了IHE，即CHP单元和热泵（HP）单元中的耦合装置的可靠性模型。能量负载由模糊多状态模型表示，以捕获由于预测，模型和数据错误而导致的不确定性。提出了基于场景的组合热量和功率调度（CHPD）模型来计算节点可靠性指数。有几种技术用于提高可靠性评估技术的计算效率。首先，传统的通用生成函数（UGF）方法被扩展到IHE上下文以组合耦合设备状态，从而减少需要考虑的场景的数量。其次，提出了一种液压 - 热分解技术，以将CHPD模型分解为可以迭代地解决的两个线性编程（LP）模型。案例研究说明了提出的可靠性评估框架和解决方案技术的有效性。

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