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Verification of attenuation models based on strong ground motion data in Northern Thailand

机译:基于泰国北部强烈地面运动数据的衰减模型验证

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摘要

Within the last decade, the number of earthquake events in Northern Thailand has significantly increased. At least, two major earthquakes have occurred in this region: the 2011 M-w 6.8 Tarlay Earthquake and the 2014 M(w )6.3 Mae Lao Earthquake. The lack of understanding on appropriate attenuation models to represent a specific region becomes a major issue if strong ground motion data is not available. This paper aims to determine an appropriate attenuation model for Northern Thailand based on seven recorded earthquake events in the region. Nine attenuation models, including ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from both NGA-West1 and NGA-West2 (Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Western US), were employed to predict peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) during the selected earthquake events. Ground motion data during the events from twenty nearby seismic stations were collected for verifying the predictions from each attenuation model. Goodness of fit test and mot mean square error (RMSE) were evaluated for each attenuation model prediction. The results show that the NGA-West2 are the most appropriate attenuation models to predict ground motion in Northern Thailand. As a consequence of verifying these attenuation models, it is hoped that further development of Thailand's seismic design standards for seismic hazard analysis of specific regions such as Northern Thailand can be based on more accurate, appropriately selected models.
机译:在过去十年中,泰国北部的地震事件数量显着增加。至少在该地区发生了两次重大地震:2011年M-w 6.8塔雷地震和2014年Mew老挝6.3级地震。如果没有强大的地面运动数据,那么缺乏对代表特定区域的适当衰减模型的理解将成为一个主要问题。本文旨在根据该地区七次记录的地震事件,确定适合泰国北部的衰减模型。九种衰减模型,包括来自NGA-West1和NGA-West2(美国西部的下一代衰减关系)的地面运动预测方程(GMPE),被用来预测选定期间的峰值地面加速度(PGA)和频谱加速度(SA)地震事件。收集了来自附近20个地震台站的事件期间的地面运动数据,以验证每个衰减模型的预测。对于每个衰减模型预测,评估拟合优度和mot均方误差(RMSE)。结果表明,NGA-West2是预测泰国北部地面运动最合适的衰减模型。由于验证了这些衰减模型,因此希望泰国的地震设计标准能够在更准确,适当选择的模型的基础上进一步发展,以用于特定区域(如泰国北部)的地震危险性分析。

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