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A probabilistic framework for the economic loss estimation of structures considering multiple aftershocks

机译：考虑多次余震的结构经济损失估算的概率框架

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摘要

The strong aftershocks have the potential to induce the additional economic loss of structures. This manuscript proposes a framework to estimate the additional economic loss induced by multiple aftershocks, and meanwhile to determine the necessary number of aftershocks that should be considered in the economic loss estimation. Four analysis models (hazard model, structural model, damage model, and loss model) are contained in the proposed framework, which is applied to a 4-story reinforced concrete structure. The result indicates that the additional economic loss induced by a given aftershock is lower when more aftershocks occur before this one. From the perspective of probability, at least two aftershocks should be considered in the loss estimation for M6.0 mainshock, while this number increases to 10 and 28 for M7.0 and M8.0 mainshocks respectively. For low-rise reinforced concrete frame structure, the impact of aftershocks on the economic loss increases with the increase of mainshock magnitude, and it can exceed 40% for strong mainshock from the perspective of probability. The proposed framework and results in this study would be helpful for the decision making in the pre- and post-earthquake environment.
机译：强烈的余震有可能导致建筑物额外的经济损失。该手稿提出了一个框架，用于估算由多次余震引起的额外经济损失，同时确定在经济损失估算中应考虑的必要余震数量。所提出的框架包含四个分析模型（危险模型，结构模型，损伤模型和损失模型），这些模型被应用于4层钢筋混凝土结构。结果表明，如果在给定余震之前发生更多余震，则由该余震引起的额外经济损失较低。从概率的角度来看，M6.0主震的损失估计中至少应考虑两次余震，而M7.0和M8.0主震的这一数字分别增加到10和28。对于低层钢筋混凝土框架结构，余震对经济损失的影响随主震幅值的增加而增加，从概率的角度来看，强主震的余震可超过40％。这项研究中提出的框架和结果将有助于地震前后的决策。

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