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An unsupervised method for estimating the global horizontal irradiance from photovoltaic power measurements

机译：一种从光伏功率测量值估算整体水平辐照度的无监督方法

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摘要

The precise calculation of solar irradiance is pivotal for forecasting the electric power generated by PV plants. However, on-ground measurements are expensive and are generally not performed for small and medium-sized PV plants. Satellite-based services represent a valid alternative to on-site measurements, but their space-time resolution is limited. In this paper we present a method for estimating the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) from the power measurements of one or more photovoltaic,(PV) systems located in the same neighborhood. The method is completely unsupervised and is based on a physical model of a PV plant. It can estimate the nominal power and orientation of multiple PV fields, using only the aggregated power signal from their PV power plant. Moreover, if more than one PV power plant is available, the different signals are reconciled using outliers detection and assessing shading patterns for each PV plant. Results from two case studies located in Switzerland are presented here. The performance of the proposed method at estimating GHI is compared with that of free and commercial satellite services. Our results show that the method presented here is generally better than satellite based services, especially at high temporal resolutions.
机译：精确计算太阳辐照度对于预测光伏电站产生的电力至关重要。但是，地面测量很昂贵，通常对于中小型光伏电站不执行。基于卫星的服务是现场测量的有效替代方案，但其时空分辨率有限。在本文中，我们提出了一种从位于同一邻域的一个或多个光伏（PV）系统的功率测量值估算整体水平辐照度（GHI）的方法。该方法完全不受监督，基于光伏电站的物理模型。它可以仅使用来自其光伏电站的合计功率信号来估计多个光伏场的标称功率和方向。此外，如果有多个光伏电站可用，则使用异常值检测和评估每个光伏电站的阴影模式来协调不同的信号。这里介绍了来自瑞士的两个案例研究的结果。将所提方法估计GHI的性能与免费和商用卫星服务的性能进行了比较。我们的结果表明，此处提出的方法通常比基于卫星的服务更好，尤其是在高时间分辨率下。

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