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Estimating the Impact of Shuttle Launches on Regional Economic Activity

机译：估算航天飞机发射对区域经济活动的影响

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The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of public investment in space programs on the regional economic activity in the areas host to the program launch operations. I implement an econometric strategy that takes the timing of the Shuttle program retirement as a natural experiment to investigate the role of public investment in space as a driver of regional economic activity. I rely on a technique known as the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactual outcomes for the Space Coast. Comparing the observed outcomes with the estimated counterfactual outcomes provides evidence of large spillover effects of the Shuttle program in the economy of the Space Coast. My results suggest that discontinuing the Shuttle program made payroll in Brevard County on average $824 million lower than the counterfactual outcome for every year since the final Shuttle mission, for a cumulative reduction in payroll of $3.3 billion below potential by 2015. In percentage terms, payroll grew at an average annual rate of 1.88% where its counterfactual growth rate was 5.25%. Evidence on employment suggests employment growth of 0.43% annually relative to counterfactual employment growth of 1.6%, keeping the recovery from the Great Recession anemic. Together, these estimates provide strong evidence that public investment in space is a boon for economic activity. The implications for space policy with this evidence are clear: public investment in space generates large and significant regional economic activity that needs to be taken into account when considering the costs and benefits of the investment. Further implications of the evidence for regional planners and firm managers are discussed.
机译：这项研究的目的是量化空间计划中公共投资对计划发射活动所在地区的区域经济活动的影响。我实施了一项计量经济学战略，将航天飞机计划的退休时间作为自然实验，以调查公共空间投资对区域经济活动的推动作用。我依靠一种称为综合控制方法的技术来估算太空海岸的反事实结果。将观察到的结果与估计的反事实结果进行比较，可以提供航天飞机计划在太空海岸经济中产生巨大溢出效应的证据。我的结果表明，自从航天飞机执行最后一次任务以来，停止执行航天飞机计划可使布瓦瓦县的薪金平均比反事实结果低8.24亿美元，到2015年，工资总额累计比潜在潜力减少33亿美元。的平均年增长率为1.88％，反事实增长率为5.25％。就业证据表明，相对于虚假的就业增长1.6％，每年的就业增长为0.43％，这使经济从大萧条中恢复过来。这些估计值一起提供了有力的证据，证明太空中的公共投资是经济活动的福音。有了这一证据，对空间政策的影响就很明显：在空间上的公共投资会产生大型而重要的区域经济活动，在考虑投资成本和收益时需要考虑到这一点。讨论了证据对区域计划者和公司经理的进一步影响。

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