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Multidisciplinary evaluation of next steps for human space exploration: Technical and strategic analysis of options

机译：下一步人类空间探索的多学科评估：备选方案的技术和战略分析

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There is a growing consensus among stakeholders around the world that the long-term objective of human space exploration is the long-duration presence of humans on the surface of Mars. However, the key question concerns the choice of near-term missions that will bridge current human spaceflight activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and eventual Mars exploration. This paper contributes to this debate by identifying the scope of possible near-term missions, arguing that there are only four realistic proposals for initial human exploration beyond low Earth orbit: a cis-lunar habitat, asteroid redirect, Mars flyby, and a short lunar surface sortie. The paper then evaluates these missions across five criteria: 1) technical/economic feasibility, 2) contribution to the eventual goal of exploring Mars, 3) potential for international cooperation, 4) global readiness for the mission, and 5) political feasibility to establish a clear assessment of the pros and cons of each of these four missions. While recognizing that any one of these missions represents a feasible option for future human space exploration, we recommend that the international community pursue development of a cis-lunar habitat as its immediate goal. This mission maximizes development of technology necessary for Mars exploration, provides significant opportunities for meaningful international participation, and could be achieved on a reasonable schedule with current budgets. Both the asteroid redirect mission and lunar exploration plans have the potential to benefit from the development of a cis-lunar habitat and could be retained as intermediate or parallel missions, as resources allow. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：全球利益相关者之间越来越多的共识是，人类太空探索的长期目标是人类长期存在于火星表面。但是，关键问题涉及短期任务的选择，这些任务将桥接当前人类在低地球轨道（LEO）和最终的火星探索中的航天活动。本文通过确定可能的近期飞行任务的范围，为这场辩论做出了贡献，认为只有四个现实的建议可供人类在低地球轨道之外进行初步探索：顺月球生境，小行星重定向，火星飞越和短月球表面出击。然后，本文根据以下五个标准评估了这些任务：1）技术/经济可行性，2）对探索火星的最终目标的贡献，3）国际合作的潜力，4）全球任务准备情况以及5）建立政治可行性清楚评估这四个任务中每个任务的利弊。我们认识到这些任务中的任何一个都是未来人类太空探索的可行选择，但我们建议国际社会将发展顺月式生境作为其近期目标。这项任务最大程度地发展了火星探测所需的技术，为有意义的国际参与提供了重要机会，并且可以在当前预算的合理安排下实现。小行星改道任务和月球探索计划都可能受益于顺月生境的发展，并在资源允许的情况下可以保留为中间任务或平行任务。 （C）2016 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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