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Forecasting the structure and orientation of earthbound coronal mass ejections

机译：预测地球冠冕物质抛射的结构和方向

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摘要

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the key drivers of strong to extreme space weather storms at the Earth that can have drastic consequences for technological systems in space and on ground. The ability of a CME to drive geomagnetic disturbances depends crucially on the magnetic structure of the embedded flux rope, which is thus essential to predict. The current capabilities in forecasting in advance (at least half a day before) the geoeffectiveness of a given CME is however severely hampered by the lack of remote-sensing measurements of the magnetic field in the corona and adequate tools to predict how CMEs deform, rotate, and deflect during their travel through the coronal and interplanetary space as they interact with the ambient solar wind and other CMEs. These problems can lead not only to overestimation or underestimation of the severity of a storm, but also to forecasting "misses" and "false alarms" that are particularly difficult for the end-users. In this paper, we discuss the current status and future challenges and prospects related to forecasting of the magnetic structure and orientation of CMEs. We focus both on observational- and modeling-based (first principle and semiempirical) approaches and discuss the space- and ground-based observations that would be the most optimal for making accurate space weather predictions. We also cover the gaps in our current understanding related to the formation and eruption of the CME flux rope and physical processes that govern its evolution in the variable ambient solar wind background that complicate the forecasting.Plain Language Summary Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are gigantic magnetized plasma clouds that are frequently expelled from the Sun. Practically all strong and extreme space weather disturbances in the near-Earth space environment are caused by CMEs that propagate in a few days from the Sun to the Earth. Space weather disturbances are related to various harmful effects to modern technology both in space and on ground which can lead to substantial economic losses. Forecasting the CME properties at least half a day before their impact on Earth is thus essential for our society. Our ability to provide accurate predictions of space weather consequences of CMEs is however currently quite modest. The key challenges are related to observational and modeling limitations, and complex evolution CMEs may experience as they propagate from Sun to Earth. This paper discusses the current status and future prospect in forecasting key CME properties using both observations and simulations.
机译：日冕物质抛射（CME）是地球上强烈的至极端的太空天气风暴的关键驱动力，这可能对太空和地面的技术系统造成严重影响。 CME驱动地磁干扰的能力在很大程度上取决于嵌入式磁通绳的磁结构，因此，预测磁势是必不可少的。但是，由于缺乏对日冕中磁场的遥感测量以及缺乏足够的工具来预测CME的变形，旋转的能力，严重限制了给定CME的地球预报的当前预报能力（至少提前半天）。 ，并且在它们与日冕风和其他CME相互作用时，在穿越日冕和行星际空间时发生偏转。这些问题不仅会导致对风暴严重性的高估或低估，而且还会导致预报“遗漏”和“虚假警报”，这对于最终用户而言尤其困难。在本文中，我们讨论了与CME的磁结构和取向预测相关的现状，未来挑战和前景。我们将重点放在基于观测和基于建模的方法（第一原理和半经验方法）上，并讨论基于太空和地面的观测方法，这些方法对于进行准确的空间天气预测而言将是最理想的。普通语言总结日冕质量抛射（CME）巨大，我们还涵盖了与CME通量绳的形成和喷发以及控制其在可变的环境太阳风背景下演变的物理过程有关的当前理解中的空白。经常从太阳中排出的磁化等离子体云。实际上，近地空间环境中所有强烈和极端的空间天气干扰都是由在几天内从太阳传播到地球的CME引起的。空间天气扰动与空间和地面对现代技术的各种有害影响有关，这可能导致巨大的经济损失。因此，对CME属性的预测至少要在半天对地球产生影响之前进行，这对我们的社会至关重要。但是，我们提供对CME的空间天气后果的准确预测的能力目前还很有限。关键挑战与观测和建模限制有关，CME从太阳传播到地球时可能经历复杂的演化。本文讨论了通过观察和模拟来预测关键CME性能的现状和未来前景。

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  • 来源
    《Space Weather》 |2019年第4期|498-526|共29页
  • 作者

    Kilpua E. K. J.; Lugaz N.; Mays M. L.; Temmer M.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Helsinki, Dept Phys, Helsinki, Finland;

    Univ New Hampshire, Space Sci Ctr, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA;

    NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA;

    Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Inst Phys, Univ Pl 5, Graz, Austria;

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