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Forecasting methods for occurrence and magnitude of proton storms with solar hard X rays

机译：太阳硬X射线对质子风暴发生和强度的预测方法

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A hard X-ray spectrometer (HXRS) was developed jointly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center and the Astronomical Institute of the Czech Republic to determine if proton storms could be forecast with greater accuracies than presently available by the existing methods. The HXRS experiment was conceived as a means of proof testing previously discovered empirical relationships between anomalous hard X-ray spectra of hard X-ray flares and solar energetic proton events (SEPs) for space weather forecasting applications. SEPs are showers of highly energetic electrons and ions, mostly protons, that can reach Earth's vicinity within minutes to hours following a moderate to large flare and have the potential of affecting the performance of civilian, military and research satellites as well as certain surface assets. The primary SEP predictor criterion educed during the present study is the requirement that the spectral index, γ, must decline (harden) to at least <4 for at least 3 min. Flares meeting this criterion have a high association with SEPs. Flares that fail this criterion do not. Other SEP correlative phenomena such as depressed hard X-ray flux and anomalous low temperatures were studied to determine their utility for forecasting purposes. During the study period, March 2000 through December 2002, 107 hard X-ray flares were spectrally analyzed including 16 SEP-associated flares. Fourteen SEP flares were correctly identified, two SEPs were missed, and three false alarms (untrue predictions) were incurred.
机译：美国国家海洋与大气管理局（NOAA）空间环境中心和捷克共和国天文研究所联合开发了一种硬X射线光谱仪（HXRS），以确定质子暴风雨的预报精度是否可以超过现有的现有技术。方法。 HXRS实验被认为是一种证明测试的方法，该方法先前发现了硬X射线耀斑的异常硬X射线光谱与太阳能质子事件（SEP）之间的经验关系，用于空间天气预报应用。 SEP是高能电子和离子（主要是质子）的骤雨，它们在中等到较大的耀斑爆发后数分钟至数小时即可到达地球附近，并有可能影响民用，军事和研究卫星以及某些地面资产的性能。在本研究中产生的主要SEP预测器标准是要求光谱指数γ在至少3分钟内必须下降（变硬）至至少<4。符合此标准的火炬与SEP高度相关。没有通过该标准的耀斑不会。研究了其他与SEP相关的现象，例如压低的硬X射线通量和异常的低温，以确定它们在预测中的效用。在研究期间（2000年3月至2002年12月），对107个硬X射线耀斑进行了光谱分析，包括16个SEP相关耀斑。正确识别了14个SEP耀斑，错过了2个SEP，并且发生了3次虚假警报（不真实的预测）。

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