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Rule generation for categorical time series with Markov assumptions

机译:具有马尔可夫假设的分类时间序列的规则生成

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摘要

Several procedures of sequential pattern analysis are designed to detect frequently occurring patterns in a single categorical time series (episode mining). Based on these frequent patterns, rules are generated and evaluated, for example, in terms of their confidence. The confidence value is commonly interpreted as an estimate of a conditional probability, so some kind of stochastic model has to be assumed. The model is identified as a variable length Markov model. With this assumption, the usual confidences are maximum likelihood estimates of the transition probabilities of the Markov model. We discuss possibilities of how to efficiently fit an appropriate model to the data. Based on this model, rules are formulated. It is demonstrated that this new approach generates noticeably less and more reliable rules.
机译:设计了几种顺序模式分析过程,以检测单个分类时间序列中的频繁发生模式(事件挖掘)。基于这些频繁的模式,可以根据规则的置信度来生成和评估规则。置信度值通常被解释为对条件概率的估计,因此必须采用某种随机模型。该模型被识别为可变长度马尔可夫模型。在此假设下,通常的置信度是马尔可夫模型的转移概率的最大似然估计。我们讨论了如何有效地将适当的模型拟合到数据的可能性。基于此模型,制定了规则。事实证明,这种新方法生成的规则明显更少,更可靠。

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