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An inexact joint-probabilistic programming method for risk assessment in water resources allocation

机译：水资源分配风险评估的不精确联合概率规划方法

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摘要

In this study, an inexact joint probabilistic programming (IJPP) approach is developed for risk assessment and uncertainty reflection in water resources management systems. IJPP can dominate random parameters in the model's left- and right-hand sides of constraints and interval parameters in the objective function. It can also help examine the risk of violating joint probabilistic constraints, which allows an increased robustness in controlling system risk in the optimization process. Moreover, it can facilitate analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised targets are violated within a multistage context. The IJPP method is then applied to a case study of planning water resources allocation within a multi-reservoir and multi-period context. Solutions of system benefit, economic penalty, water shortage, and water-allocation pattern vary with different risks of violating water-demand targets from multiple competitive users. Results also demonstrate that different users possess different water-guarantee ratios and different water-allocation priorities. The results can be used for helping water resources managers to identify desired system designs against water shortage and for risk control, and to determine which of these designs can most efficiently accomplish optimizing the system objective under uncertainty.
机译：在这项研究中，开发了一种不精确的联合概率规划（IJPP）方法，用于水资源管理系统中的风险评估和不确定性反映。 IJPP可以控制模型左侧和右侧约束中的随机参数以及目标函数中的区间参数。它还可以帮助检查违反联合概率约束的风险，这可以提高在优化过程中控制系统风险的鲁棒性。此外，当在多阶段环境中违反了承诺的目标时，它可以促进对与不同水平的经济后果相关的各种政策情景的分析。然后，将IJPP方法应用于在多水库和多时期环境下规划水资源分配的案例研究。系统收益，经济损失，缺水和配水模式的解决方案因违反多个竞争用户的用水需求目标的风险而有所不同。结果还表明，不同的用户拥有不同的用水保证率和不同的用水分配优先级。结果可用于帮助水资源管理者确定所需的系统设计以应对水资源短缺和风险控制，并确定其中哪些设计可以最有效地完成不确定性条件下的系统目标优化。

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  • 作者

    Zhuang X. W.; Li Y. P.; Huang G. H.; Zeng X. T.;

  • 作者单位

    North China Elect Power Univ, Sino Canada Resources & Environm Res Acad, MOE Key Lab Reg Energy Syst Optimizat, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China;

    North China Elect Power Univ, Sino Canada Resources & Environm Res Acad, MOE Key Lab Reg Energy Syst Optimizat, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China;

    North China Elect Power Univ, Sino Canada Resources & Environm Res Acad, MOE Key Lab Reg Energy Syst Optimizat, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China;

    North China Elect Power Univ, Sino Canada Resources & Environm Res Acad, MOE Key Lab Reg Energy Syst Optimizat, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Joint probability; Management; Multistage; Risk assessment; Uncertainty; Water resources;

    机译：联合概率;管理;多阶段;风险评估;不确定性;水资源;

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