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首页> 外文期刊>Studies in History and Philosophy of Science. A >Social networks and private spaces in economic forecasting
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Social networks and private spaces in economic forecasting

机译：经济预测中的社交网络和私人空间

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The outputs of economic forecasting—predictions for national economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates and inflation—are all highly visible. The production of these forecasts is a much more private affair, however, typically being thought of as the work of individual forecasters or forecast teams using their economic model to produce a forecast that is then made public. This conception over-emphasises the individual and the technical whilst silencing the broader social context through which economic forecasters develop the expertise that is essential for the credibility of their predictions. In particular, economic forecasts are given meaning and fine-tuned through the social and institutional networks that give forecasters access to the expertise of a heterogeneous mix of academics, policy-makers and business people. Within these broader groups, individual forecasters often create private forecast 'clubs', where subscribers have privileged access to the expertise of the economist, but where the forecasters also have privileged access to their clients' own expert knowledge. In examining these aspects of the forecasters' work I show that the visible and audible activities of modelling and forecasting are made possible and plausible by virtue of the modeller's invisible interaction with a wider network.
机译：经济预测的输出-国内生产总值，失业率和通货膨胀等国民经济指标的预测-都非常明显。然而，这些预测的产生是私人事务，通常被认为是单个预测者或预测团队使用其经济模型来产生然后公开发布的预测的工作。这个概念过分强调个人和技术，同时又使广泛的社会环境变得沉默，经济预测者通过这些社会环境发展了对其预测的信誉至关重要的专业知识。尤其是，通过社会和机构网络赋予了经济预测意义，并对其进行了微调，使预测人员可以使用学者，政策制定者和商人等各种机构的专长。在这些更广泛的群体中，各个预测员通常会创建私人预测“俱乐部”，订户可以在其中特权访问经济学家的专业知识，但是在这些预测员中，也可以特权访问其客户自己的专业知识。在检查预报员工作的这些方面时，我表明，建模者与更广泛的网络之间不可见的交互作用使可视化和可视化建模和预报活动成为可能并变得合理。

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