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Can a Sino-Japanese War Be Controlled?

机译:中日战争可以控制吗?

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摘要

It has been decades since the last war between major powers in Asia, but there is no guarantee that the region will always be able to avoid conflict. The greatest strain on the peace is in North Asia, where there has been rising tension between China and Japan. What begins as a minor skirmish between China and Japan could conceivably escalate into a more serious conflict that involved the United States and, in the worst case, the use of nuclear weapons by Beijing and Washington. Even a major conventional conflict (between just Japan and China, or involving all three) could be devastating for North Asia and the wider region, leading to a significant loss of life and widespread political, institutional and economic damage.
机译:自亚洲主要大国之间的上一场战争以来已经过去了数十年,但不能保证该地区将始终能够避免冲突。对和平的最大压力是在北亚,中日之间的紧张局势不断加剧。可以想象,从中日之间的小规模冲突开始,可能会升级为更严重的冲突,涉及美国,最坏的情况是北京和华盛顿使用核武器。甚至是一场重大的常规冲突(仅在日本和中国之间,或涉及这三个冲突)都可能对北亚和更广阔的地区造成毁灭性的打击,从而导致严重的人员伤亡以及广泛的政治,制度和经济损失。

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  • 来源
    《Survival》 |2015年第6期|135-165|共31页
  • 作者

    Robert Ayson; Desmond Ball;

  • 作者单位

    Victoria University of Wellington, Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre;

    Australian National University;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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