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The Limits of Chinese-Russian Partnership

机译：中俄伙伴关系的局限性

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Since 1996, Russia and China have been united in what both call a 'strategic partnership'. There is a good deal of presentism - the infinite extrapolation of now - in Western analyses of the relationship. But as English historian A.J.P Taylor said of the lessons of history, the only visible pattern to the relationship between Moscow and Beijing over the past six decades is that there is no pattern.1 The current stage will more than likely give way to another that could surprise us, as previous ones have. The direction of such shifts has generally defied expectations. The explanations - China's dependency on Russia, ideological bonds, animosities rooted in history and race - adduced to predict the course of Russia-China relations repeatedly proved invalid. The relationship was never as solid as it seemed, nor as dangerous. The policies of third countries did influence its course at times, but the prime movers were the principals themselves.
机译：自1996年以来，俄罗斯和中国在所谓的“战略伙伴关系”中团结一致。在西方对这种关系的分析中，存在大量的存在主义-现在的无限推论。但是，正如英国历史学家AJP泰勒（AJP Taylor）谈到历史教训时，过去六十年间，莫斯科与北京之间关系的唯一可见模式是没有任何模式。1当前阶段很有可能让位于另一阶段，像以前一样使我们感到惊讶。这种转变的方向通常违背了预期。用来预测俄中关系走向的解释-中国对俄罗斯的依赖，意识形态纽带，植根于历史和种族的敌意-被反复证明是无效的。这种关系从来没有看起来那么牢固，也没有那么危险。第三国的政策有时确实会影响其进程，但主要推动者是主体本身。

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  • 来源
    《Survival》 |2009年第3期|99-130|共32页
  • 作者

    Rajan Menon;

  • 作者单位

    International Relations, Lehigh University, and Fellow, New America Foundation;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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