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How the growth of science ends theory change

机译：科学的发展如何结束理论变革

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This paper outlines a defense of scientific realism against the pessimistic meta-induction which appeals to the phenomenon of the exponential growth of science. Here, scientific realism is defined as the view that our current successful scientific theories are mostly approximately true, and pessimistic meta-induction is the argument that projects the occurrence of past refutations of successful theories to the present concluding that many or most current successful scientific theories are false. The defense starts with the observation that at least 80% of all scientific work ever done has been done since 1950, proceeds with the claim that practically all of our most successful theories were entirely stable during that period of time, and concludes that the projection of refutations of successful theories to the present is unsound. In addition to this defense, the paper offers a framework through which scientific realism can be compared with two types of anti-realism. The framework is also of help to examine the relationships between these three positions and the three main arguments offered respectively in their support (No-miracle argument, pessimistic meta-induction, underdetermination).
机译：本文概述了科学现实主义对悲观的元归纳的辩护，后者归因于科学的指数增长现象。在这里，科学现实主义被定义为这样一种观点，即我们当前成功的科学理论大多近似真实，而悲观的元归纳法则是将成功理论的过去反驳投射到现在的论点，从而得出许多或大多数当前成功的科学理论的结论。是假的。辩护开始于观察到，自1950年以来，至少有80％的科学工作已经完成，然后继续宣称我们所有最成功的理论在这段时间内都是完全稳定的，并得出结论：对成功理论的反驳是不正确的。除了这种防御外，本文还提供了一个框架，通过该框架可以将科学现实主义与两种类型的反现实主义进行比较。该框架还有助于检查这三个立场与分别在其支持下提供的三个主要论点之间的关系（无奇迹论点，悲观的元归纳，不确定性确定）。

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