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Incorporating Psychological Influences in Probabilistic Cost Analysis

机译：将心理影响纳入概率成本分析中

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摘要

Today's typical probabilistic cost analysis assumes an "ideal" project that is devoid of the human and organizational considerations that heavily influence the success and cost of real-world projects. In the real world "Money Allocated Is Money Spent" (MAIMS principle); cost underruns are rarely available to protect against cost overruns while task overruns are passed on to the total project cost. Realistic cost estimates therefore require a modified probabilistic cost analysis that simultaneously models the cost management strategy including budget allocation. Psychological influences such as overconfidence in assessing uncertainties, dependencies among cost elements, and risk are other important considerations that are generally not addressed. It should then be no surprise that actual project costs often exceed the initial estimates and are delivered late and/or with a reduced scope. This paper presents a practical probabilistic cost analysis model that incorporates recent findings in human behavior and judgment under uncertainty, dependencies among cost elements, the MAIMS principle, and project management practices. Uncertain cost elements are elicited from experts using the direct fractile assessment method and fitted with three-parameter Weibull distributions. The full correlation matrix is specified in terms of two parameters that characterize correlations among cost elements in the same and in different subsystems. The analysis is readily implemented using standard Monte Carlo simulation tools such as @Risk and Crystal Ball~®. The analysis of a representative design and engineering project substantiates that today"s typical probabilistic cost analysis is likely to severely underestimate project cost for probability of success values of importance to contractors and procuring activities. The proposed approach provides a framework for developing a viable cost management strategy for allocating baseline budgets and contingencies. Given the scope and magnitude of the cost-overrun problem, the benefits are likely to be significant.
机译：当今典型的概率成本分析假设一个“理想”的项目，而该项目没有人力和组织因素，而这些因素严重影响了实际项目的成功和成本。在现实世界中，“分配的钱就是花的钱”（MAIMS原理）；成本超支很少可以用来防止成本超支，而将任务超支转移到项目总成本中。因此，实际成本估算需要修改后的概率成本分析，才能同时对包括预算分配在内的成本管理策略进行建模。心理影响，例如评估不确定性的过度自信，成本要素之间的依存关系以及风险，是其他通常未解决的重要考虑因素。因此，实际项目成本通常会超出初始估算并延迟交付和/或缩小范围就不足为奇了。本文提出了一种实用的概率成本分析模型，该模型结合了在不确定性，成本要素之间的依存关系，MAIMS原则和项目管理实践下人类行为和判断的最新发现。专家使用直接分数评估方法得出不确定的成本要素，并采用三参数威布尔分布进行拟合。完全相关矩阵是根据两个参数来指定的，这两个参数表征了同一子系统和不同子系统中成本要素之间的相关性。使用标准的Monte Carlo模拟工具（例如@Risk和Crystal Ball〜®）可以轻松地进行分析。对代表性设计和工程项目的分析证实，当今的典型概率成本分析可能会严重低估项目成本，因为对承包商和采购活动很重要的成功价值概率。拟议的方法为开发可行的成本管理提供了框架分配基线预算和应急费用的策略。考虑到成本超支问题的范围和严重性，收益可能很大。

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