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首页> 外文期刊>Systems research and behavioral science >Gaining Policy Insight with a System Dynamics Model of Pain Medicine Prescribing, Diversion and Abuse
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Gaining Policy Insight with a System Dynamics Model of Pain Medicine Prescribing, Diversion and Abuse

机译：通过止痛药处方，转移和滥用的系统动力学模型获得政策见解

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Misuse of pain medicine is a leading cause of accidental deaths in the USA-over 15 000 deaths annually. A system dynamics model was developed and used to study the impact of three types of policy interventions to reduce adverse outcomes. Besides medical usage, the model also includes the diversion of pain medicines and their nonmedical use. Model behavior compared favourably with historical data at multiple points in the system. A prescription drug monitoring program intervention reduced nonmedical overdoses through supply restriction, and an intervention to reduce popularity of nonmedical usage reduced nonmedical overdoses by curtailing demand. A tamper-resistant drug formulation intervention resulted in decreased risk to individuals but increased overdose deaths. Key policy insights are that supply and demand must be carefully considered; that the feedback loops, which created the problem, can help to identify solutions; and that outcome metrics must be carefully chosen. Copyright (C) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
机译：滥用止痛药是美国意外死亡的主要原因-每年有15,000多人死亡。开发了系统动力学模型，用于研究三种类型的政策干预措施对减少不良后果的影响。除了医疗用途外，该模型还包括止痛药的转移及其非医疗用途。模型行为与系统中多个点的历史数据相比具有优势。处方药监测计划的干预措施通过限制供应减少了非医疗药物的过量使用，而减少非医疗用途的干预措施则通过减少需求减少了非医疗药物的过量使用。防篡改的药物制剂干预可降低个体的风险，但增加过量用药的死亡人数。重要的政策见解是必须仔细考虑供求关系；造成问题的反馈回路可以帮助确定解决方案；并且必须仔细选择结果指标。版权所有（C）2015 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.

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