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The death of a transport regime? The future of electric bicycles and transportation pathways for sustainable mobility in China

机译：运输制度的死亡？电动自行车的未来和中国可持续交通的交通途径

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This paper has an empirical and theoretical focus: to empirically assess electric bicycle development in China, and to theoretically test and apply the "Multi-Level Perspective" on transitions and innovation. We examine the electric bicycle(e-bike) sector in China to understand the future prospects for urban mobility and the interaction of e-bikes as a form of vernacular technology within the existing transport regime. For this purpose, we address the following questions: 1) What factors will influence the future adoption of e-bikes? 2) How are alternative travel modes evaluated against e-bikes? 3) Will e-bikes become a popular sustainable mobility mode in the future or only an intermediary mode to cars? To provide answers, we conducted a survey in Nanjing city in order to assess the attitude of e-bike users, and other mode users (e.g. pedestrians; bicycle users). We then analyse responses from this survey through the lens of sociotechnical transitions theory, notably the "Multi-Level Perspective" notions of niches, regimes, and landscape. The paper explores the influential factors underpinning future e-bike adoption and the decision-making calculus behind alternative mode choices. Generalised Linear Models are used to investigate the factors influencing future e-bike adoption and alternative mode choices based on the survey data. We conclude that e-bikes are an intermediary mode on Nanjing's motorisation pathway, and that they therefore may eventually reflect a dying regime.
机译：本文具有实证和理论重点：对中国电动自行车的发展进行实证评估，并对过渡和创新进行理论上的测试和应用“多层次视角”。我们研究了中国的电动自行车（电动自行车）行业，以了解城市交通的未来前景以及在现有交通体制下作为一种白话技术形式的电动自行车之间的相互作用。为此，我们解决以下问题：1）哪些因素将影响未来电动自行车的采用？ 2）如何根据电动自行车评估替代出行模式？ 3）电动自行车将来会成为流行的可持续出行模式还是仅成为汽车的中间模式？为了提供答案，我们在南京市进行了一项调查，以评估电动自行车用户和其他模式用户（例如行人，自行车用户）的态度。然后，我们将通过社会技术转变理论的角度来分析此调查的响应，尤其是利基，政权和景观的“多层次视角”概念。本文探讨了影响未来电动自行车采用的因素以及替代模式选择背后的决策计算。广义线性模型用于根据调查数据调查影响未来电动自行车采用和替代模式选择的因素。我们得出的结论是，电动自行车是南京机动化道路上的一种中介模式，因此它们最终可能反映出一种濒死的制度。

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