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首页> 外文期刊>Technological forecasting and social change >Thinking together about the future when you are not together: The effectiveness of using developed scenarios among geographically distributed groups
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Thinking together about the future when you are not together: The effectiveness of using developed scenarios among geographically distributed groups

机译：在一起时，一起思考未来：在地理上分散的群体中使用已开发的方案的有效性

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Scenarios have been effectively used over the years to trigger and accelerate learning, to stretch the mental models of managers, and as a tool for helping executives to develop strategies in the face of uncertainty. However, the scenario literature frequently assumes a high degree of continuity between the scenario-building process and the use of the resulting scenarios in strategy development, and that the participants throughout these processes will be in the same geographic location. As part of a research project exploring the future of transportation in the Asia-Pacific region, we examine the use of previously developed scenarios by transport experts to re-imagine the future of transportation in the region. Our approach involved delivering scenarios online to enable the participation of various stakeholders in the region who were geographically dispersed. The results show that the developed scenarios contributed to individual learning that, in turn, led to a change in mental models. The results also demonstrate that scenario-related processes can be conducted online to be more cost-effective, flexible, and less constrained by geographic barriers. In doing so, this paper usefully extends both the theoretical and practical dimensions of this topic by exploring an alternative approach for large participation in scenario-related processes in the public domain.
机译：这些年来，情景已被有效地用于触发和加速学习，扩展管理者的心理模型，以及作为帮助管理者在面对不确定性时制定战略的工具。但是，场景文献经常假设场景构建过程与在策略开发中使用生成的场景之间具有高度的连续性，并且贯穿这些过程的参与者将位于同一地理位置。作为探索亚太地区交通运输未来研究项目的一部分，我们研究了交通运输专家对以前开发的方案的使用，以重新想象该地区交通运输的未来。我们的方法涉及在线交付方案，以使该地区的各个利益相关者都能参与其中。结果表明，发达的情景有助于个人学习，进而导致心理模型的改变。结果还表明，可以在线进行与场景相关的过程，以提高成本效益，灵活并且不受地理障碍的限制。在此过程中，本文通过探讨在公共领域中大量参与与场景相关的过程的替代方法，有效地扩展了该主题的理论和实践范围。

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